Sunday, November 18, 2012

NFL Picks: Week 11

As usual, I tweeted my Thursday Night Pick (@WilliamBotchway), and as I have done way too many times, I got it wrong:
Dolphins (+1.5) over BILLS.
Now I'm 4-7 on early week games, and 68-78-4* (yes, I'm still annoyed at losing the Replacement Ref game in Seattle in Week 3) on the year. I've given up on trying to get to .500 now... Oh well, let's get on with this week's picks.

"UPSET ALERT" next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not only cover. Also, home team in CAPS.

Cardinals (+9.5) over FALCONS. I think that the Falcons should win this, but this is a team that doesn't blow anybody out. No matter who they play against, I'll be reluctant to pick them to cover a spread this big.
Browns (+8) over COWBOYS. The Browns are underrated and the Cowboys are the Cowboys. Don't be surprised if Cleveland pulls this one out. UPSET ALERT.
Packers (-3.5) over LIONS. The Lions are not very good, the Packers are. There's no logical reason for this line being so low.
Bengals (-3.5) over CHIEFS. Prior to Monday night, the Chiefs have not had a lead in a game. Nothing has changed, they played one good game. They're still bad, and won't cover this spread.
RAMS (-3.5) over Jets. As a Jets fan, I would bet my house, my life, and Darrelle Revis's head on the Rams demolishing the Jets today. The Rams have quietly been a good team, and played very well against one of the best teams in the league (49ers) last week. The Jets, are just bad.
REDSKINS (-3.5) over Eagles. Matchup of the rookie QBs. Only issue for the Eagles, Griffin is better than Foles.
Buccaneers (-1.5) over PANTHERS. I was on the Bucs in the preseason and they're playing great. Josh Freeman and Doug Martin should cause fits for the putrid defense in Carolina.
TEXANS (-15) over Jaguars. This is the best team in the league against the worst team in the league. I really don't feel good about giving 15 points, but it's too obvious. Even if I get it wrong, I still think it's a good pick.
RAIDERS (+5.5) over Saints. No people, the Saints are not a playoff contender. With Oakland at home, this game could be interesting.
BRONCOS (-8.5) over Chargers. Norv Turner is nearing the end (yes, I know you've heard that phrase many times over the past 3 years) and Peyton Manning is back in G.O.A.T. form. At home against the mess that is the Chargers, easy.
PATRIOTS (-10) over Colts. I like Andrew Luck, and I don't like the Patriots defense. so why am I picking the Pats to cover? Tom Brady vs. Colts defense.
RAVENS (-3.5) over Steelers. I can't believe there are so many people picking the Steelers. Leftwich is bad, the Ravens are still good despite the injuries.
Bears (+7.5) over 49ERS. No idea who is starting on either side, so based on the defenses alone, I'm taking the Bears. UPSET ALERT.

Week 8: 5-9
Week 9: 7-7
Last Week: 7-7
This Week: 0-1
Season: 68-78-4*

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