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Game 4 is tonight, and the Heat will be looking to even it up before heading back to San Antonio to continue the series. Otherwise, they'll be looking at elimination in Game 5.
I expect the Heat to do just that, as the combination of San Antonio's offensive luck running out to a certain extent, and some adjustments will allow them to split these home games.
As I mentioned yesterday, the reason why the Spurs won Game 3 was because they were hitting shots. Some of those shots will still go in tonight, but some of them will rim out. That way, they won't be able to blow the game open from the beginning. Expect to see them employ the same strategy of having their role players be aggressive at the start.
But the law of averages, plus an extra defensive effort by the Heat will deny them. there will be a lot of hard switches on the pick and roll, and the Heat will be closing out harder. They'll do everything to make sure that the Spurs will earn every point in this game.
They will also make a concerted effort to take care of the ball on offense. Despite having a hard time keeping the turnovers down in Game 3, LeBron James should be dominating the ball even more tonight. That's mostly because it's hard to trust Mario Chalmers at this moment, and Norris Cole hasn't been much better.
Look for those changes, and a very good performance from LeBron James, leading to a Miami victory. If they lose, they're in serious trouble.