Sunday, September 9, 2012

NFL Picks: Week 1

Here it is. Football has arrived, and you know what that means; weekly picks. This is the first year that I'll be actually picking against the spread. I'm using the average of the six lines that appear on Before we begin, I must mention that for the early week games (Wednesday for this week, Thursday from Week 2 on), I will tweet my pick, so go follow me @WilliamBotchway. Unfortunately I didn't get to do that because the powers that be at Twitter decided to throw me in Twitter Jail five minutes before the game so I was blocked from doing anything. Well here is what would have been my pick:
GIANTS (-4) over Cowboys.
As you can see, that failed, so my record is already at a sterling 0-1. I'll improve on that, don't worry. How exactly? Let's see this week's picks:

"UPSET ALERT" next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not only cover. Also, home team in CAPS.

Colts (+10) over BEARS. I feel like this line is too big in favor of the Bears. I still like them to win, but the Colts will probably cover. It might be a blowout, at which point, Luck might pick up some points in garbage time.

Eagles (-9.5) over BROWNS. Rookie quarterback who isn't nearly as good as Andrew Luck. Also he's facing a better defense. I see a very good offensive game for the Eagles.

LIONS (-9.5) over Rams. Too easy. Lions at home in perfect domed conditions, aka an offensive playground. The Lions offense is great.

New England (-5.5) over TITANS. The reason why this spread seems to be too low is that the Titans aren't a bad team. Jake Locker can do some good things on the football field, and the Pats defense is porous. Also, the game is in Tennessee. All that said, the Titans don't have enough offensive weapons to make this game closer. It's a good number and I probably would have talked myself into the Titans if it was set at +5.

CHIEFS (+2.5) over Falcons. I'm picking the upset outright here. Arrowhead is a notoriously hard stadium to play at, and the Falcons aren't the greatest road team in the NFL. They always feast in their dome, but are pretty mediocre outside. I like the Chiefs this year and this should be a good game. Even if the Chiefs lose, as long as they lose by less than 3, I win. UPSET ALERT.

Jaguars (+3.5) over VIKINGS. I don't know why this line is so big. This is possibly the worst game of the NFL season being that the two worst QBs in the league are going to have an epic battle for ineptitude. I have them tied, but one could be crowned the King of Doormat QBs. Should be fun to watch. The Jaguars are overall a better team than the Vikings, so outright win here. UPSET ALERT.

SAINTS (-8.5) over Redskins. Offensive juggernaut against a rookie QB. Seems a bit too easy, which is why I'm worried that RGIII is going to pull out a Cam Newton debut. Oh well, still got the Saints.

JETS (-3) over Bills. I'm going to hate myself after I post this. I'm obviously a Jets fan, but the offense is so bad that I'm worried. In fact I'm tempted to pick the Bills to win the game altogether. The saving grace is that I don't trust Fred Jackson being great at the age of 30, and Darrelle Revis will shut down Steve Johnson, leaving Fitzpatrick to throw to who? David Nelson, that's who.

TEXANS (-13.5) over Dolphins. This has all the makings of an epic blowout. The Texans are very strong offensively and defensively. The Dolphins on the other hand, are bad in both areas. There's a reason why Houston is favored by so much.

49ers (+5) over PACKERS. I think the Packers will win, but judging by what the Niners did to the Saints last year in the playoffs, I don't think Green Bay can win by five, that seems too much. Strength on strength in the matchup between the Pack's offense and the defense of the red and gold. The Packer's defense is bad enough that Alex Smith and Co. will make this game close until the end. I think it's a field goal win for the Packers.

Seahawks (-3) over CARDINALS. The Seahawks can be a surprising team this year, because the defense is much better than they are given credit for. Russell Wilson is a real X-Factor and he's looked really good. He's probably going to be the better quarterback on the field even though I'm a John Skelton fan.

BUCCANEERS (+2) over Panthers. The Bucs are another surprise team this year. Josh Freeman is going to bounce back and show why people like me were ranking him in the upper echelon of QBs. He's great, and it should be a great matchup between him and Cam. The Bucs are the home team, so I'll go with them in this somewhat even game. UPSET ALERT.

BRONCOS (-2) over Steelers. Pittsburgh comes into Mile High boasting an aging defense that is missing their key safety Ryan Clark. Well all saw what Tim Tebow did in the playoffs last year when Pittsburgh came into Mile High boasting an aging defense that is missing their key safety Ryan Clark. This inequality sums up my pick: Peyton Manning > Tim Tebow.

Bengals (+7.5) over RAVENS. The Ravens will come out on top, but this line is crazy. The Bengals are good enough to make it a game, so I refuse to bite on the Ravens covering.

RAIDERS (-1) over Chargers. The Chargers are a better team, but being that Norv Turner is their coach, they will find a way to once again stumble out of the gate and lose to a lesser team. Classic Norv.

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