Saturday, January 12, 2013

NFL Picks: Divisional Round

A great slate of games this week as the playoffs, with some very interesting lines. I can definitely go 0-4 or 4-0 with these picks. I was 3-1 last week with my only loss coming when the Bengals failed to cover in Houston, who were playing like the walking dead last week (and spoiler alert: will be finally killed off come Sunday). Let's get on with this week's picks:
Ravens (+9) over BRONCOS. The Broncos will definitely win this game, but by how much... I don't expect the Ravens to get blown out, and there's a lot of potential for a backdoor cover. In fact, I think that this will be a fairly close game. I'm breaking one of my own rules here, don't bet against the G.O.A.T. at home in a playoff game.
49ERS (-2.5) over Packers. The Niners are a better overall team because defensively the Packers are highly overrated. But then again, I'm not supposed to be betting against Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs, so I'm very nervous about this one. The one thing that swung my pick in favor of San Fran is that I think Colin Kaepernick can attack the Packer's defense. They're also playing at home, which always helps.
Seahawks (+3) over FALCONS. I'm breaking four rules here: never bet against Matt Ryan at home, never bet on a West Coast team playing a 1 PM game on the East Coast, never bet on a West Coast team playing a 1 PM game on the East Coast for the second straight week, and never bet on a West Coast team playing a 1PM game on the East Coast for the second straight week in the playoffs. The reason why I'm choosing the Seahawks, they are better than the Falcons, and it is that simple. The injury to Chris Clemons could be the deciding factor in swinging this game towards Atlanta because he has been a monstorous pass rusher this year, but with Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner locking down on the receivers, it will be very hard for Matt Ryan to throw the ball.
PATRIOTS (-9.5) over Texans. The Texans have been free-falling for a while and barely squeaked by a Bengals team last week who was in full on "ignore our best  offensive player (A.J. Green) mode." Not much to say here really.

**NOTE** I never mentioned my Week 17 or full season records, so I'll add them here:

Week 17: 10-6
Season: 125-133-4*
Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 3-1

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