Sunday, December 8, 2013

NFL Picks: Week 14

In what should be a great game, Colin Kaepernick and the home team Niners should pull out the tough victory. Photo from
Before I start, let me just gloat for a little bit. Like any normal football fan, I play fantasy football. I'm in a 10 team league with some guys from my school. Last year I came in third, and I'm the third seed in the playoffs again this year. Had I lost last week, I would have been the fourth seed, and looking at a first round exit thanks to league champion, and juggernaut, my friend Dave. But I won, and it's because of this:
Just wanted to tell the world (at least the .00000000001% that is reading this) that I got 97 points from two players last week. It's a PPR league, so that inflates the numbers, but still. Keep looking at that. Feast your eyes on the glory.

As you can see, despite the performances of Gordon and Jeffery, their teams lost. I got the Browns game right, because I knew to avoid the Stench of Wheeds. As for the Bears...I don't know what to do with them.

Speaking of not knowing what the do, my Jets are disgusting right now, and have a quarterback controversy. Again.

I got a bit too cute picking the Rams to cover in San Francisco. Oh well, they're so inconsistent that it was certainly possible.

On Thursday night, I made my pick for what may be the worst game of the season. I didn't bother to turn of my TV to watch two of the worst teams in the league have at each other on a Thursday, which has been notorious over the last two years of producing lower quality games. Count me out. Yet, I still had my make my pick:

Turns out, I was right. With some help from the Case Keenum-Matt Schaub combo,  the Jags won. Unfortunately, that win seemed to take them out of the running for the first pick in the draft, having swept Houston this season. They're too bad to not go all out tank mode for Teddy Bridgewater.

That win brings me to 10-6 on Thursdays, and 99-89-5 on the season. At least I'm not losing ground, but it's time to make a run.

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS. 

Colts (+7) over BENGALS. The Colts are too inconsistent, and are showing their weaknesses (mainly defensively) that I mentioned before the season that would keep them from being a great team. At the same time, I don't know what the hell they're going to do from week to week, so, the possibility of them covering is still out there. Don't look now, but it looks like my AFC Champion Bengals still have a slim chance of getting to the Super Bowl. Despite the injuries to Geno Atkins and Leon Hall, they've been trucking along, and looking pretty good in the process.

Falcons (+3.5) over PACKERS. Both these teams are bad due to injuries, so I'm going to go with the close game theory. I don't see Matt Flynn leading his team to a 4 point win.

PATRIOTS (-10) over Browns. Apparently, no matter what happens with Josh Gordon, the Stench of Wheeds is too strong for Cleveland to win.

JETS (-2.5) over Raiders. Ew. The Jets have to get back on track eventually, right? Right? Full preview coming later. Ugh.

Lions (+3) over EAGLES. I still don't subscribe to the idea that the Eagles are just a really good team now. Despite being really inconsistent recently, I think that the Lions are better. Most importantly, they can stop the run, making the Eagles pretty one-dimensional. While Nick Foles has protected the ball really well this year, Detroit safeties Louis Delmas and Glover Quin will be in position to make some plays and cause turnovers. It's going to be a fun game. UPSET ALERT. 

STEELERS (-3.5) over Dolphins. Home team! Even after the entire Mike Tomlin debacle, the Steelers will get this win and stay alive in the playoff race. They just won't go away.

BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over Bills. Recently, Tampa Bay has shown the talent that I believed in during the preseason. Mike Glennon is giving them solid quarterback play, which is more than Josh Freeman is doing backing up Hall of Fame quarterbacks Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel. Anyway, the Bucs offensive line has been playing well since Doug Martin went down, because both Mike James before he got hurt and Bobby Rainey have looked impressive. The Bills can't stop the run, so expect to see a lot of Rainey today, leading to a Buccaneers victory. That's right, Bobby Rainey is going to lead his team to victory.

Chiefs (-3) over WASHINGTON PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM. Good team visiting a bad team. The Chiefs will be fine, they just ran into a rough patch. If their receivers can actually catch the football this week, Washington's in for a long day. If any team can help the Chiefs offense get back on track...well, it's Washington.

RAVENS (-6.5) over Vikings. I don't know if there's much to say about this game, because the Vikings are bad, and the Ravens can be as well. It's hard to say which Ravens team will show up, and while this looks like an all-time trap game, I'm sticking with Baltimore. Expect Ray Rice to look like an NFL running back again against this Vikings defense.

BRONCOS (-11) over Ryan Fitzpatrick on the Road. No, I'm not going to fall into this trap. Expect Fitzpatrick to turn the ball over repeatedly, and expect Peyton Manning to parlay that into points. This is going to entire blowout territory by the third quarter.

CARDINALS (-5.5) over Rams. The Cardinals need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They're essentially eliminated if the 49ers beat the Seahawks, so this is an important game for them. The Rams are another team that is impossible to predict, but I'll go with the better team in this one. Arizona's defense can certainly keep the Rams big playmakers, namely Tavon Austin and Zac Stacy, at bay.

CHARGERS (-3.5) over Giants. Please, kill these Giants. I can't deal with their playoff hopes still being alive. They're bad. They have talent, and they can probably retool and make a playoff run next year, but they are bad right now. Though, I must say that Andre Brown gives them a legit running game, which has improved the rest of the offense.

49ERS (-2.5) over Seahawks. Obviously, the Seahawks are the best team in football, but in San Francisco, they lose the advantage of the 12th Man against a team that is built almost the same way. Michael Crabtree will be available in this game, along with Mario Manningham, two receivers who didn't play in Week 2 in Seattle. With Crabtree in the lineup, he gives a dimension to this offense that they have been lacking all year. Obviously Vernon Davis is great, but Crabtree's outside presence is important. That will be the difference in this game compared to Week 2. Watch out for Jim Harbaugh running quite a few read option plays here, which is something that they've been missing most of the year. No matter what you're doing today, make sure you watch this.

Panthers (+3.5) over SAINTS. This could very well turn into a blowout, as with all Saints games. The reason why I won't go there is because the Saints biggest weakness on defense is defending the run, which means that Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, and DeAngelo Williams should all combine for a nice game. Newton is such a great playmaker, and can make something out of nothing. By the end of the game, their earlier success running the ball will open up the passing game a little, so watch out. Yet another must watch game. The Saints should win, but barely. Remember, they lost to the Jets, who are built the same way as the Panthers, but, a lot worse.

Cowboys (Pick'Em) over BEARS. The Bears are bad. There's no way around it anymore. The Cowboys should pick up the win with a huge game from Demarco Murray, and create some separation in the NFC East.

Last Week: 7-8-1
This Week: 1-0
Season: 99-89-5

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