Sunday, October 12, 2014

NFL Picks: Week 6

Photo courtesy of Fox Sports
My picks are on a roll! After finally getting over the .500 hump for the first time in Week 4, I followed it up with a nice performance last week. It seems I'm starting to get a better grasp on this year's NFL.

How 'bout them Browns???

This week, I kicked it off by making my Thursday night pick on Twitter (@WilliamBotchway):

I was wrong about two things. First, I obviously got the pick itself wrong, as the Colts wound up covering the spread in what turned out to be a close Thursday night game (I know, shocker). But there was a huge oversight in that tweet.

I picked the Texans to cover, and not J.J. Watt, which he almost did.

I'm now 2-4 on Thursday night games. Oh well, at least I've been making up for it on Sundays as of late.

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS.
BILLS (+2.5) over Patriots. The Bills circled the wagons last week and came away with a pretty important win in Detroit, leading to Jim Schwartz being carried off the field in celebration of a victory over the team whose season he ruined last year by his absolutely terrible coaching.

Yeah, good one Jim. You really showed them!

For whatever reason, this matchup decides who carries the lead in the AFC East into Week 7, and for similarly unknown reasons, I think it will be the Buffalo Bills.

Actually, I do know why, but I simply can't believe this is happening. Kyle Orton is just good enough to lead a decent offense, and the defense has been great thus far. New year, new owner, new Bills. UPSET ALERT. 

Panthers (+7) over BENGALS. I have absolutely no clue which Panthers team will decide to show up today in Cincinnati, so I'm picking a close game. 

BENGALS (-7) over Panthers. Wait, does it matter which version of the Panthers we see? Last week's debacle aside, the Bengals have been great so far this year. Even if Carolina played their best game, Cincy could still win. And it's hard to play your best game against the league's top passing defense. 

Panthers (+7) over BENGALS. Never mind. A.J. Green will be out for today's game. That will negatively impact Cincinnati's offense just enough for the Panthers to cover.

That's my final answer.

I think.

BROWNS (-1) over Steelers. Speaking of circling wagons: no one circles the wagons like the (2014) Cleveland Browns.

No one.

That was an amazing victory last week in Tennessee, and it's just another testament to the Browns being a lot better than most people give them credit for. In a rematch of a Week 1 game in which Cleveland stormed back from a 27-3 halftime deficit to tie the game before losing on a last second field goal by Shaun Suisham, I expect the Browns to start their scoring earlier this time around, and take the W at home.

P.S. There's no reason why they are only favored by 1 point.

Packers (-2) over DOLPHINS.
It's tough for me to pass up the Dolphins as a home underdog, but it's even tougher for me to pass up Aaron Rodgers giving only 2 points. I would have been kicking myself when the Packers win this game by 15.

TEDDY TIME (-2.5) over Lions. The return of Teddy spells doom for Detroit. Last week's blowout loss to Green Bay was 100% the fault of Christian Ponder, and you will never be able to convince me otherwise. Bridgewater will make up for that.

JETS (+9.5) over Broncos. This is going to be a brutal game for my Jets, but this is also a lot of points for a home team to be getting. Obviously, the Broncos are going to win by 87 points, but I simply can't pick that. I swear this isn't homerism.

BUCCANEERS (+3.5) over Ravens. The Buccaneers barely lost to the Saints last week, and have looked fine ever since their embarrassing Thursday night loss to the Falcons in Week 3. I still think that the Ravens are very good, but I must go with the home underdog.

Jaguars (+4.5) over CLIPBOARD JESUS. I have now picked the Jaguars to cover in every game this year. And so far, I am 0-5 in games in which they are involved. But, getting points against Chuck Whitehurst is not something that I can simply pass up.

Chargers (-7) over RAIDERS. I'm sorry Tony Sparano, but this is not going to be a fun debut as head coach of the Raiders. Philip Rivers and Branden Oliver will tear Oakland's defense to shreds.

FALCONS (-3) over Bears. This week's "I'm going with the home team because I don't know what else to do" winner: the Atlanta Falcons.

Washington Professional Football Team (+6) over LOGAN THOMAS. Logan Thomas, a man who was deemed by absolutely everyone to be "too raw" to be a starting quarterback right now, is a starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals right now.

No matter how bad Washington's defense is, there is no way that this ends well for him or the Cardinals. At the very least, Washington should cover. UPSET ALERT. 

Cowboys (+8.5) over SEAHAWKS. Even though I'm still not sold on the Cowboys, 8.5 is quite a lot of points to lay down, even if Seattle is playing at home. This is easily going to be the best game of the week, and it should be closer than the line suggests.

EAGLES (-2.5) over Giants. The Eagles are better than the Giants, and playing at home. Why this line isn't at least 3 points is beyond me. Sure, there's a chance that New York pulls out the victory in Philadelphia, especially now that it seems they've found their footing offensively, but I wouldn't count on it.

49ers (-3.5) over RAMS. I don't know why, but Austin Davis is actually pretty good. Unfortunately that won't matter against a Niners team that has somewhat found their footing in recent weeks.


Last Week: 8-6-1

This Week: 0-1

Season: 32-43-1

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