Sunday, December 28, 2014

NFL Picks: Week 17

Photo courtesy of the Atlanta Falcons
Finally this terrible season is coming to a close. My picks have been an absolute dumpster fire and the only way I have a chance to finish at .500 overall is if I go 11-5 this week, which doesn't look like it's happening. After a great season in 2013, I fell apart this time around. Oh well, better luck next time. Whether it was to laugh at how stupid I am, or you actually enjoy these picks, thanks for coming back every week.

Without further ado: what I will be wrong about in Week 17!

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS.

Connor Shaw (+13.5) over RAVENS. Do I fully believe that Brian Hoyer is injured? Nope. Whatever the reasoning, Connor Shaw is going to start for the Browns this afternoon, and will be missing Josh Gordon who has been suspended...again.

Still, I'm not laying 13.5 points with anyone.

Update: The Browns are falling apart at the seams. Will I change my pick?


Can't wait for Flacco to unleash his January 2013 self and win this game 89-12.

Jaguars (+9.5) over J.J. WATT. Even after Joe Flacco turned into a mix of Geno Smith and Ryan Leaf last week at the hands of the Texans' defense, I'm not laying 9.5 points with Case Keenum. It's simply not happening.

Chargers (+1) over CHASE DANIEL. The playoff hopes of the Chiefs, Chargers, Ravens, and J.J. Watt rests on this matchup between the Chargers and the Chiefs' backup quarterback. I actually don't have a problem with Chase Daniel, who almost beat the Chargers last year in Week 17 when the Chiefs resting their first team for the entire game. At the same time, I was probably going to pick the Chargers in this game anyway, because Philip Rivers may never lose another football game. UPSET ALERT.

DOLPHINS (-6) over Jets. The Jets are heading into this game with a lame duck coach and a lame duck GM and I'm angry and depressed and I just want their season to be over.

Bears (+6) over VIKINGS. Instead of going with David Fales, Marc Trestman caved and opted to bring back Jay Cutler to replace the injured Jimmy Clausen. Yikes...

The Vikings should win a pretty close game.

Bills (+5) over PATRIOTS. The Pats have absolutely nothing to play for in this game now that they've locked up the top seed in the AFC, so don't expect a full team to be on the field today. Some reports have indicated that most players should play the entire game, with guys like Rob Gronkowski playing a reduced snap count. Against this frisky Bills team, anything less than a full speed ahead approach scares me, so I must go with the underdog.

Eagles (+2.5) over ODELL. I don't get why the Giants would be favored in this matchup. Sure, they've won 3 games in a row over two very bad teams and the Rams, but the Eagles are obviously superior. UPSET ALERT.

BUCCANEERS (+4) over Saints. It would be comically stupid if the Bucs won this game, considering that they are in pole position for the first pick int he draft, but they just might. The Saints are very inconsistent, and have no business being favored by 4 points over anybody.

CLIPBOARD JESUS (+7) over Colts. Much like the Pats, the Colts are locked into their playoff seed, but will probably play their starters the majority of the game. But, on the road against Clipboard Jesus, three days after his birthday, winning by 7 isn't a guarantee.

The Cowboys have something to play for, so I'm very confused as to why this line is so low. No complaints though.

FALCONS (-3) over Panthers. The Falcons are better, I think. Maybe not. I don't care. I hate this game with a passion. This game is like watching the Poinsettia Bowl, as my friend put it, it's "high stakes bad football." This week's "I'm going with the home team because I don't know what else to do" winner: the Atlanta Falcons.

Lions (+7.5) over PACKERS. The NFC North title game has a 7.5 point line because that's how good the Packers have been at home. Detroit's offense has not been terribly impressive as of late, but their defense is still great, and can slow down Green Bay just enough to keep it close.

Raiders (+14) over BRONCOS. The Raiders have been playing really well recently, and as long as the underdog shows up, I'm going to pick them when the line creeps up to double digits.

49ERS (-6.5) over Resurrection of Lindley. Damn is Ryan Lindley terrible. In Jim Harbaugh's final NFL game, for now, the Niners should walk out with a victory over the playoff bound Cards.

Rams (+12.5) over SEAHAWKS. Too many points. Way too many points.

Bengals (+3.5) over STEELERS. I'm not entirely sure why the Steelers are getting that extra half point boost, especially after what Cincinnati did to Peyton Manning on Monday night. I think the Bengals may have righted the ship, which means they are the better of these two teams. Even if they don't win, it should be close. UPSET ALERT.

Last Week: 8-7-1

Season: 110-126-4

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