Sunday, November 29, 2015

NFL Picks: Week 12

Photo courtesy of Washington Post
That was my first pretty good week in a while, going 8-6. I cooled off significantly since my hot start, but I might be back on track for the home stretch. Thanksgiving week in the NFL is always one of my favorites, because there are two days of almost wall to wall football, instead of just one. As for those Thanksgiving Day games, I did alright. As always, I made my picks on Twitter:
I got the game right, and I was somewhat right about the next thing.
This game ended up being absolutely unwatchable, but not for the reasons I expected. The Lions got up big early, and continued to embarrass the Eagles for 60 minutes of destruction.
The Eagles certainly got the futility part down. As for the Lions, where was this all year? This team actually looks sneaky good, but they dug themselves too big of a hole to sniff the playoffs at this point, especially since their division has three good teams ahead of them.
This game is easiest summed up by my only tweet during it.
So yeah, I got that game wrong.
And now, the shocker of the day. I thought the Bears would keep it close, obviously, but I had no thoughts about them winning outright. What is up in Green Bay?

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS.
Raiders (-1) over TITANS. Oakland has definitely cooled off from the sudden hype about a possible playoff push, but they're also facing the Terrible Titans this week, who I'm probably never picking again for the rest of the season.

Bills (+5.5) over CHIEFS. I'm not exactly sure what's up with this line. I think the Chiefs are the better team, but it's not so obvious that I'd set the line at anything above four points. 

Buccaneers (+3) over COLTS. The Colts eventually have to lose with Matt Hasselbeck. In principle this can't continue, because the Colts were very beatable with Andrew Luck playing. Also, the Bucs are a very sneaky 5-5 that could possibly sneak into the playoffs in the NFC. UPSET ALERT.

WASHINGTON PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM (+2.5) over Giants. Absolutely anything can happen in this game. Either team can blow out the other, or this will be a close game that goes down to the wire. I know that Washington struggled mightily against the Panthers last week, and the Giants defense is a lot better since JPP and his clubs returned, but I'm not fully buying NYG's Defensive Renaissance until I see a larger sample size. For today, I'm putting my support behind the home dog, which makes the NFC East race a lot more interesting. 

You like that?

UPSET ALERT.

Saints (+3) over J.J. WATT. At this point, Watt is the entire team. Earlier in the season, he wasn't making the same impact on every game that we've come to expect from a superhuman like himself. Coincidentally, once he began doing unfair things to opposing offenses, the entire Texans defense became one of the best in the league. With an offense that consists of Insert QB Here unendingly chucking the ball to DeAndre Hopkins as many times as humanly possible, this team is in prime position for a playoff spot. 

Yet, I'm picking the Saints, probably because I'm still salty about Houston pouring more dirt on the Jets' season last week. 

J.J. WATT (-3) over Saints. Okay fine. Texans win. I hate everyone. 

Vikings (+2.5) over FALCONS. Atlanta has been a total disaster lately, and it will continue against the Vikings. I'm considering last week's home loss to Green Bay an anomaly. Throw that game out, and we still have convincing evidence that Minnesota is a team to be feared come playoff time. UPSET ALERT.

Rams (+8.5) over BENGALS. Too many points. Cincy will almost certainly win, barring another Andy Dalton debacle, but one thing that game against the Texans did prove, is that the Bengals can't blow out a team with a really good defense, even if the offense is suspect. 

JAGUARS (-5) over Chargers. This is how far the Chargers have fallen. 

Dolphins (+4) over JETS. The Jets lose this exact game to the Dolphins every single year. After shooting themselves in the foot and losing two consecutive winnable games, the Jets come home to officially end their season by losing a heartbreaker to Miami. 

Doesn't that script sound familiar?

Even if the Jets somehow pull out this victory over fate, it will not be by more than three points.

UPSET ALERT.

CARDINALS (-10) over 49ers. Cardinals, good. 49ers, bad. 

Steelers (+3.5) over SEAHAWKS. Seattle wins it at home, but by a field goal. 

BRONCOS (+2.5) over Patriots. Who hands New England their first loss of the season? The Brockstar himself. UPSET ALERT.

BROWNS (-3) over Ravens. Even with all the stuff going down in Cleveland, Matt Schaub is lining up under center for the opponent, meaning the Browns will win. 

Last Week: 8-6

This Week: 2-1

Season: 81-73-5

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