Sunday, September 28, 2014

Week 4 Preview: Lions at Jets

Photo courtesy of Turn on the Jets
Lions: TE Joseph Fauria (ankle), LB Travis Lewis (quadricep), CB Cassius Vaughn (ankle)

Jets: None

Lions: S Don Carey (hamstring), T LaAdrian Waddle (calf)

Jets: CB Dee Milliner (quadricep)

Lions: WR Calvin Johnson (ankle), FB Montell Owens (hamstring)

Jets: WR Eric Decker (hamstring)

Lions: DE Ezekiel Ansah (knee), RB Joique Bell (knee), DT Nick Fairley (biceps), S James Ihedigbo (neck), DE George Johnson (groin), RB Theo Riddick (hamstring)

Jets: G Willie Colon (calf), OL Dalton Freeman (knee), RB Chris Johnson (ankle), C Nick Mangold (shoulder), WR David Nelson (illness), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (knee)

So, what do I do now?

The Jets are one of the weirdest teams in the league, because there's a lot of reason to see how they could be a playoff team. But, there are also many, very real, red flags that signal oh dear, 6 wins here we come!

In this game, one of those red flags is the secondary. If Milliner is unable to play, Calvin Johnson could end up with something like 367 yards.

But, I still think that the Jets win. Their run defense takes away a good portion of Detroit's offense. Outside of pounding it on the ground with Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, the Lions rely on their short passing game a lot. They'll be one-dimensional today. While that one dimension is Calvin Johnson, it also allows Rex Ryan to send the house on passing downs, which will slow down the Lions' offense.

The Lions' run defense is one of the best in the league, but they took a pretty big hit last week with Stephen Tulloch tearing his ACL celebrating a sack, which he doesn't regret. While they're still one of the better run stuffing teams in the league, this will be their first week without Tulloch, which should be an issue against New York's diverse rushing attack.

I don't know if Eric Decker is going to play this week, but I don't know how much it matters. Detroit's pass defense is suspect, and with Geno Smith throwing quick, short passes, the Jets should be able to move the ball pretty well.

Overall, this is going to be a very, very tough game, but I see the Jets coming away with the victory.

Bold and Unnecessary Predictions That I'm Making Anyway
  • The Jets will rush for 125 yards. Against a great run defense, this is a very bold pick by me. 
  • Matthew Stafford will pass for 250 yards or fewer. The pass rush will make it hard to get anything going. 

JETS (+1.5) over Lions.

Jets 24, Lions 20

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