NFL Picks: Divisional Round

Photo courtesy of Grantland

I got three games right when picking straight up last week, but the Panthers covered, and the Cowboys didn't, meaning that I went 1-3 in my picks. Once again, a prime example of why this simply isn't my year.

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS. 

NFL Picks: Wild Card Round and Playoff Preview

Photo courtesy of Bleacher Report

It's the end of a long season, and it's time for the playoffs. Things get started today as we kick off the worst Wild Card round ever, but that will give way to what should be an awesome second round next week.

Now let's take a trip back to September, when I posted my NFL Preview. I got seven of the twelve playoff teams correct, but there was an interesting conference split. I got nearly every AFC playoff team correct, with my only mishap being me placing the Jets in the sixth spot and leaving the Steelers out completely. That means that I only got two teams correct in the NFC: the Seahawks and the Packers (who I nearly left out anyway). I figured that the NFC would be a very interesting conference this year, but little did I know I'd be so wrong about so many things.

Speaking of being wrong, let's talk about my picks this year! I naturally closed out the year with a 7-9 Week 17, meaning that I finished the year 18 games under, compared to 13 games over in 2013. This also means that even if I sweep through the postseason, there's no chance of be sniffing .500 for this season overall. I'm disgusted.

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS. 

Resurrection of Lindley (+6.5) over PANTHERS. It seems obvious to everyone that the Cardinals are going to lose this afternoon, but I'm not so sure. The fact that the Cards are 11-5 is incredible considering the innumerable amount of injuries that they've suffered, dating back to losing Daryl Washington and Darnell Dockett to season ending injuries even before Week 1. All credit goes to Bruce Arians and future Jets head coach Todd Bowles for the job they've done all year working with a depleted roster. Asking them to win a road playoff game with Ryan Lindley as the starting quarterback would usually be an impossible task, but not against a sub-.500 division winner in the 7-8-1 Panthers.

Carolina had won four games in a row on their way to winning the NFC South, simply because no one else wanted to. I don't trust them at all, but their defense has improved over the last few weeks and Cam Newton has been keeping their offense afloat.

Superior coaching will keep the game close, but in the end, Newton will be the best player on the field, and for the second time, a team blow .500 will advance to the second round. This game is going to be terrible. I suggest you avert your eyes.

Panthers 23, Cardinals 17.

Ravens (+3) over STEELERS. I'm not nearly as excited for this game as I should be. I recognize that Ravens-Steelers is one of the best rivalries in the league. I recognize that these are divisional foes playing each other for the third time this season after splitting the first two games. I get it. I recognize that the Steelers have the best offense in the NFL and will go up against a pesky Ravens defense (even with their gruesome secondary) that will be getting back Haloti Ngata.

But am I chomping at the bit to watch it happen?

Not really.

Unlike the first game, however, I will make sure to watch this because it will be a fun game. The key here is how Pittsburgh deals with the loss of Le'Veon Bell. The star running back will be out for today's game, and they don't really have anyone to replace him. Rookie Josh Harris and Ben Tate, fresh off of being cut for the second time this year, are going to be leading the running game, which seriously hinders Pittsburgh's offense.

At the same time, the Steelers still have Antonio Brown on their team. Not only is he amazing, the Ravens have absolutely no one that can cover him. And yet, I think Baltimore can overcome that. Their pass rush is great, and should frustrate Big Ben throughout the night, even if sacking Ben is like a midget dunking on Dikembe Mutombo. The Steelers offense runs through Roethlisberger, Brown, and Bell. And one of those pieces will be out tonight.

UPSET ALERT.

Ravens 28, Steelers 24.  

Bengals (+3.5) over COLTS. For the third year in a row, the Colts are 11-5, for the third year in a row they are a lot shakier than their record suggests, and for the third year in a row, I'm picking against them in the first round.

Indianapolis went 2-4 against playoff teams this season. They were embarrassed by the Steelers, Patriots, and Cowboys, lost to the Broncos. One of the playoff teams that they beat was the Ravens. The other...the Bengals. In fact, they didn't just beat Cincinnati, they shut the Bengals out 27-0.

So, why in God's name am I picking the Bengals in this game?

Two reasons: inconsistency, and Jeremy Hill.

We'll start with the first. Both of these teams, and their quarterbacks can be erratic at times. That Week 7 game was simply a case of the Colts playing their best game while the Bengals played their absolute worst. the stars aligned and it led to a beatdown. It would take a lot of luck (and no, I don't mean Luck) for that to happen again.

As for the other big factor, it's pretty self explanatory. These two teams played before Jeremy Hill broke out and took over Cincinnati's rushing attack. He's been awesome, and the combination of him and Giovani Bernard has been great. Bernard has been shifted to the role of almost purely a receiving back, while Hill has been tearing it up as the lead back. In related news, the Colts have a terrible run defense, so the Bengals should be able to take advantage of that this time around in a close game.

Once again, UPSET ALERT.

Bengals 31, Colts 29. 

COWBOYS (-6.5) over Lions. This is the only favorite that I'm taking all weekend, and it makes me quite nervous. There is a good chance that I'm wrong and the game is a lot closer than expected, and it's not out of the question that the Lions win outright and perpetuate the insanity that Tony Romo cannot win a big game.

Detroit has one of the best defenses in the NFL, and if they can slow down, and possibly shut down the potent Dallas offense, then they should win easily. But I don't see that happening.

Everything is working perfectly on the offensive side of the ball for the Cowboys. Their offensive line is beating up their opponents up front, they are elite at running back, wide receiver, and most important quarterback, and each of these pieces are meshing perfectly.

On the other side of the ball, Detroit's offense has a lot of talent but has struggled to get going all year. I'm going to heap a good portion of the blame for that onto Matthew Stafford, because he's not good enough to take advantage of the weapons around him in Joique Bell, Calvin Johnson, and Golden Tate. This is the perfect team for the Cowboys defense to take advantage of. With Dallas's ball control offense, the Lions will rarely see the ball, and they aren't the type of quick strike offense that can score quickly enough to keep the game close.

And for that reason, I'm laying the touchdown.

Cowboys 27, Lions 17.

Divisional Playoffs
PATRIOTS over Ravens. 

BRONCOS over Bengals. 

SEAHAWKS over Panthers. 

Cowboys over PACKERS. 

Conference Championships
PATRIOTS over Broncos. 

SEAHAWKS over Cowboys.

Super Bowl
Seahawks over Patriots. 

Last Week: 7-9

Season: 117-135-4

NFL Preview Extravaganza 2014: NFC East

Photo courtesy of Hound Sports

This is definitely not the worst division in football, which I've been hearing a lot recently. There are two teams that definitely have a chance of making the playoffs, and two teams that could potentially be fine.

Photo courtesy of Yahoo Sports

Philadelphia Eagles
2013 Record: 10-6
Yards Per Game: 417.2 (2nd in the NFL)
Points Per Game: 27.6 (4th in the NFL)
Yards Per Game Allowed: 394 (29th in the NFL)
Points Per Game Allowed: 23.9 (tied-17th in the NFL)

Chip Kelly's arrival in Philadelphia brought a great amount of offensive success, as the league could not catch up with him. Their run and gun offense was super successful, allowing them to overcome their defensive faults.

Coming into this season, they added Darren Sproles in a trade with the Saints, a move that I absolutely loved at the time, while getting back Jeremy Maclin from injury. They did however, lose DeSean Jackson by cutting him after a whirlwind of trade rumors was followed up by an accusation of gang ties before he was finally cut loose. Of course, the Eagles and Chip Kelly insist that the release was only for "football reasons," but I guess we'll never know the truth on this one. The bottom line is that Philly lost a very good wide receiver, leaving them with Maclin and Riley Cooper as the starting wideouts.

They also didn't do much to improve the defense, as signing Malcolm Jenkins to replace Patrick Chung was a lateral move.

Overall, I think that the defense is about the same as it was last year, as the very good pass rush struggles to make up for the deficiencies at the back end. Meanwhile, Nick Foles and the offense regresses just enough to where the Eagles will not be a playoff team in 2014. I love Chip Kelly and I think that his system may have created a new paradigm in the NFL, but with a full offseason of adjustments under their belt, the other 31 coaches will figure out ways to stop them.

In order for this team to make the postseason, the offense has to be just as good as last season, when they were probably the second best in the league. This year, I think they'll be more like the fourth or fifth best in the NFL, a difference that will cost them a shot in the playoffs.

32 in 32: Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys

Read the introduction here
Read the Cardinals preview here
Philadelphia Eagles tomorrow

2011 Record: 8-8

Key Acquisitions: Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne, Dan Connor, Kyle Orton, Brodney Pool
Key Departures: Alan Ball, Martellus Bennett, Derrick Dockery, Abram Elam, Bradie James, Kyle Kosier, Terrence Newman, Laurent Robinson

I've always been a notorious Romo defender. He is an elite quarterback in a difficult division and conference. His team doesn't help him out much either. I originally thought that they could make a run to the postseason, but looking around at the NFC, that's not going to happen. Romo is still great, but there are a lot of questions to be answered about this team, especially on offense. I do like that they finally took care of the glaring issues in the secondary.

Offense
Tony Romo is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I currently have him as the 7th best, which is good considering that Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and both Mannings are all on pace for the Hall of Fame. I'm not saying that Romo will ever get to that level (unless the man starts to win in the playoffs), but he's not as terrible as people keep saying.

Demarco Murray came out of nowhere last season to become one of the best rookie running backs in the league. I don't see him as an elite rusher, but he's at least decent. With him being the only reliable back on the roster, that doesn't make for a very potent attack. Felix Jones has injury troubles, and he's very inconsistent. This is not going to be a good season for the rushing offense.

Miles Austin is good, but he really needs to stay on the field. If he is hurt again, this group of receivers will become a gigantic joke. Dez Bryant is athletically impressive, but I'm still waiting for him to put it all together and become as good as he is capable of being. He's a great talent, but his off the field troubles coupled with his problems with learning the offense, I don't know what to expect from him. Kevin Ogletree is the third receiver. Yeah. That's why if Austin is hurt, there's no hope.

Jason Witten's spleen is going to keep him out for a while, and that's a major issue. Romo's security blanket is hurt, and the backup tight ends are not even close to the talent of Witten.

The offensive line is having some issues now. Doug Free and Tyron Smith switched positions, and both are currently struggling to adapt to their new roles. I'm not liking what I am seeing from the whole line so far. In the first preseason game, Romo was under pressure on nearly every snap. That was just horrific.

Defense
Kenyon Coleman and Marcus Spears are both fine defensive ends. Neither of them are anything special. Jay Ratliff has always been a rock in the middle of this defensive line. He has been a Pro Bowler each of the past four years. Everyone knows about the best pass rusher in the NFL, Demarcus Ware, and what he does for this team. On the other side of him, Anthony Spencer is pretty good too. On the inside, Sean Lee is one of the most underrated linebackers in the game. His breakout year last year went unnoticed by a lot of people, but he was great. Dallas also looks for some improvement from Bruce Carter this year.

Brandon Carr is a big improvement over Terrence Newman, and a great addition to this team. I am in love with the draft pick of Morris Claiborne, it was such a good move to trade up for him (a rare good move by Good Ole Jerry). Mike Jenkins is also a very good corner, and I wonder who is the one that will be used as the third option out of these three. There's also Orlando Scandrick who is pretty good himself. When it comes to the safeties, Gerald Sensabaugh is the best one on the team. I do expect a few packages with 3 corners and Sensabaugh all on the field.

Special Teams
Dan Bailey must have angered a coach in a past life. He was effectively iced on crucial field goals late in the season last year, once by his own coach, Jason Garrett and once by Tom Coughlin. Mat McBriar is gone, and Chris Jones has to take over the full-time punting job. He wasn't terrible last year. Akwasi Owusu-Ansah is probably going to be running back kicks, and that's fine with me since he's a fellow Ghanaian.

8-8, 3rd in NFC East