NFL Picks: Divisional Round

Photo courtesy of SB Nation

Long story short, my picks sucked last week. I was hoping to go 11-0 in the playoffs this year, but, alas.

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS.

NFL Picks: Wild Card Round and Playoff Preview

Photo courtesy of Sporting News

So, I didn't do preseason predictions this year. I meant to, and thanks to poor planning and the obviously hectic nature of my first few weeks in college, I was left with not enough time to complete thorough projections for every team in the league. Based on my general thoughts from summer, some of this season's results have been surprising, such as the Panthers morphing into a powerhouse with no thanks owed to their receiving corps, Peyton Manning becoming a shell of a shell of his former self, Green Bay's descent to complete and utter mortality, and Kirk You Like That Cousins's ascent to glory. Still, I was right about quite a few things, such as Arizona being a very good team, the Pats obviously continuing their run of dominance in the AFC, and the Vikings taking quite a few people by surprise.

Of course, all this reflection can only mean one thing: it's playoff time. One of the best months of the year is ahead, which will culminate in the crowning of a new Super Bowl Champion at Levi's Stadium. This season has been pretty weird overall, especially considering that Brian Hoyer, A.J. McCarron, and the aforementioned Cousins are starting home games this weekend. Despite this, my picks have not suffered, going 128-120-7 on the season. Of course, the one issue with that is that there are 256 games in a season, yet I've only accounted for 255. Small error that I don't quite have the time to deal with right now because I'm flying back to campus soon, but I will fix. Either way, this was a lot better than my dismal record from last season.

After my picks for this week, I'll continue with my predictions for the rest of the postseason. Let's get on with the show!

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS.



Chiefs (-3) over TEXANS.

The Chiefs are the hottest team in the NFL, seeing as they just reeled off ten straight wins to propel themselves into the playoffs. They went from a 1-5 team on the verge of their season suffering a cruel death, to a sexy pick by some smart people to possibly challenge the Patriots in the AFC playoffs. I'm one of those people. I'm all in on these Chiefs, led by their rejuvenated defense, and their sudden discovery of a legitimate passing game.

The Texans on the other hand, are a pretty dangerous team in their own right. Despite playing like trash to begin the year, to the point that I continued to bash them week after week as they stayed alive in the AFC South race because no one else wanted to win the division, they can cause the Chiefs, or any team in the playoffs trouble. J.J. Watt's presence on defense continues to be an underrated force, and DeAndre Hopkins is easily one of the best receivers in the league, and impossible to cover for four quarters. Playing at home, they're going to be a tough out.

But by 7:30, they will be out.

Chiefs 21, Texans 17.

BENGALS (+1.5) over Steelers.

Injuries on both sides will affect the gameplans of these teams heavily. Without Andy Dalton, the Bengals will rely on a more run heavy attack than usual, as well as having the receivers run shorter routes to protect A.J. McCarron, only in his fourth career start.

On the Pittsburgh sideline, the loss of DeAngelo Williams will prove to be important, but possibly not deadly. The well balanced attack boasted by the Steelers all year will not be as prevalent with Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman in the backfield.

Both teams can stay afloat without Dalton or Williams, but the real story here is on defense. Pittsburgh's defense, to be blunt, isn't very good. The days of the Steel Curtain are long gone, and this team has a much different identity. Cincy, on the other hand, has a strong defense that will give Roethlisberger and Co. lots of trouble.

Most importantly, McCarron isn't that bad. He can be a highly effective game manager, even when facing off against a high powered offense. The Bengals are equipped with more than enough weapons for someone like him to match the Steelers' scoring.

Bengals 30, Steelers 27

Seahawks (-4) over VIKINGS.

Plain and simple, the Seahawks are a much better version of the Vikings. These two teams are built similarly, with a great running game, an athletic quarterback who is capable of making big throws when needed, and of course, defense. Despite Marshawn Lynch being ruled out of this game, the problem for Minnesota lies in the fact that Russell Wilson is light years better than Teddy Bridgewater. Wilson's scrambling ability extends plays well beyond their expiration, and leads to positive gains on broken plays. Bridgewater tries to do this, but just isn't as skilled. Seattle's going to minimize Peterson's impact, as much as any team actually can, and force the Vikings the win the game in the air. I believe in Teddy, but not that much.

Seahawks 31, Vikings 17.

WASHINGTON YOU LIKE THATS (-1) over Packers.

You like that?

The power of Kirk Cousins should be enough of an explanation, but if that's not enough, add in the fact that the Packers are simply not the same team this year. Their offense has been shockingly mediocre, and their defense hasn't played incredibly well. They backed their way into the postseason thanks to the Lions melting down and a ridiculous Hail Mary play that would be completed 1 out of 1,000 tries.

Washington on the other hand, thanks in part to their famous rallying cry, has been playing very well recently as they almost coasted to an NFC East title in December. 

Washington 24, Packers 20

Based on these results, here are my picks for the rest of the playoffs 

Divisional Round

PATRIOTS over Bengals. 

Chiefs over BRONCOS. 

PANTHERS over Seahawks. 

CARDINALS over Washington Professional Football Team. 

Championship Round 

Chiefs over PATRIOTS. 

Cardinals over PANTHERS. 

Super Bowl 

Cardinals over Chiefs. 

Enjoy round one, folks. 

Last Week: 8-8

Season: 128-120-7

NFL Picks: Wild Card Round and Playoff Preview

Photo courtesy of Bleacher Report

It's the end of a long season, and it's time for the playoffs. Things get started today as we kick off the worst Wild Card round ever, but that will give way to what should be an awesome second round next week.

Now let's take a trip back to September, when I posted my NFL Preview. I got seven of the twelve playoff teams correct, but there was an interesting conference split. I got nearly every AFC playoff team correct, with my only mishap being me placing the Jets in the sixth spot and leaving the Steelers out completely. That means that I only got two teams correct in the NFC: the Seahawks and the Packers (who I nearly left out anyway). I figured that the NFC would be a very interesting conference this year, but little did I know I'd be so wrong about so many things.

Speaking of being wrong, let's talk about my picks this year! I naturally closed out the year with a 7-9 Week 17, meaning that I finished the year 18 games under, compared to 13 games over in 2013. This also means that even if I sweep through the postseason, there's no chance of be sniffing .500 for this season overall. I'm disgusted.

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS. 

Resurrection of Lindley (+6.5) over PANTHERS. It seems obvious to everyone that the Cardinals are going to lose this afternoon, but I'm not so sure. The fact that the Cards are 11-5 is incredible considering the innumerable amount of injuries that they've suffered, dating back to losing Daryl Washington and Darnell Dockett to season ending injuries even before Week 1. All credit goes to Bruce Arians and future Jets head coach Todd Bowles for the job they've done all year working with a depleted roster. Asking them to win a road playoff game with Ryan Lindley as the starting quarterback would usually be an impossible task, but not against a sub-.500 division winner in the 7-8-1 Panthers.

Carolina had won four games in a row on their way to winning the NFC South, simply because no one else wanted to. I don't trust them at all, but their defense has improved over the last few weeks and Cam Newton has been keeping their offense afloat.

Superior coaching will keep the game close, but in the end, Newton will be the best player on the field, and for the second time, a team blow .500 will advance to the second round. This game is going to be terrible. I suggest you avert your eyes.

Panthers 23, Cardinals 17.

Ravens (+3) over STEELERS. I'm not nearly as excited for this game as I should be. I recognize that Ravens-Steelers is one of the best rivalries in the league. I recognize that these are divisional foes playing each other for the third time this season after splitting the first two games. I get it. I recognize that the Steelers have the best offense in the NFL and will go up against a pesky Ravens defense (even with their gruesome secondary) that will be getting back Haloti Ngata.

But am I chomping at the bit to watch it happen?

Not really.

Unlike the first game, however, I will make sure to watch this because it will be a fun game. The key here is how Pittsburgh deals with the loss of Le'Veon Bell. The star running back will be out for today's game, and they don't really have anyone to replace him. Rookie Josh Harris and Ben Tate, fresh off of being cut for the second time this year, are going to be leading the running game, which seriously hinders Pittsburgh's offense.

At the same time, the Steelers still have Antonio Brown on their team. Not only is he amazing, the Ravens have absolutely no one that can cover him. And yet, I think Baltimore can overcome that. Their pass rush is great, and should frustrate Big Ben throughout the night, even if sacking Ben is like a midget dunking on Dikembe Mutombo. The Steelers offense runs through Roethlisberger, Brown, and Bell. And one of those pieces will be out tonight.

UPSET ALERT.

Ravens 28, Steelers 24.  

Bengals (+3.5) over COLTS. For the third year in a row, the Colts are 11-5, for the third year in a row they are a lot shakier than their record suggests, and for the third year in a row, I'm picking against them in the first round.

Indianapolis went 2-4 against playoff teams this season. They were embarrassed by the Steelers, Patriots, and Cowboys, lost to the Broncos. One of the playoff teams that they beat was the Ravens. The other...the Bengals. In fact, they didn't just beat Cincinnati, they shut the Bengals out 27-0.

So, why in God's name am I picking the Bengals in this game?

Two reasons: inconsistency, and Jeremy Hill.

We'll start with the first. Both of these teams, and their quarterbacks can be erratic at times. That Week 7 game was simply a case of the Colts playing their best game while the Bengals played their absolute worst. the stars aligned and it led to a beatdown. It would take a lot of luck (and no, I don't mean Luck) for that to happen again.

As for the other big factor, it's pretty self explanatory. These two teams played before Jeremy Hill broke out and took over Cincinnati's rushing attack. He's been awesome, and the combination of him and Giovani Bernard has been great. Bernard has been shifted to the role of almost purely a receiving back, while Hill has been tearing it up as the lead back. In related news, the Colts have a terrible run defense, so the Bengals should be able to take advantage of that this time around in a close game.

Once again, UPSET ALERT.

Bengals 31, Colts 29. 

COWBOYS (-6.5) over Lions. This is the only favorite that I'm taking all weekend, and it makes me quite nervous. There is a good chance that I'm wrong and the game is a lot closer than expected, and it's not out of the question that the Lions win outright and perpetuate the insanity that Tony Romo cannot win a big game.

Detroit has one of the best defenses in the NFL, and if they can slow down, and possibly shut down the potent Dallas offense, then they should win easily. But I don't see that happening.

Everything is working perfectly on the offensive side of the ball for the Cowboys. Their offensive line is beating up their opponents up front, they are elite at running back, wide receiver, and most important quarterback, and each of these pieces are meshing perfectly.

On the other side of the ball, Detroit's offense has a lot of talent but has struggled to get going all year. I'm going to heap a good portion of the blame for that onto Matthew Stafford, because he's not good enough to take advantage of the weapons around him in Joique Bell, Calvin Johnson, and Golden Tate. This is the perfect team for the Cowboys defense to take advantage of. With Dallas's ball control offense, the Lions will rarely see the ball, and they aren't the type of quick strike offense that can score quickly enough to keep the game close.

And for that reason, I'm laying the touchdown.

Cowboys 27, Lions 17.

Divisional Playoffs
PATRIOTS over Ravens. 

BRONCOS over Bengals. 

SEAHAWKS over Panthers. 

Cowboys over PACKERS. 

Conference Championships
PATRIOTS over Broncos. 

SEAHAWKS over Cowboys.

Super Bowl
Seahawks over Patriots. 

Last Week: 7-9

Season: 117-135-4

NFL Preview Extravaganza 2014: AFC North

Photo courtesy of Dynasty Nerds

In terms of competitiveness, the AFC North may be the best division in all of football. There are no amazing teams in this division, but none of the four teams can be considered bad. They're all going to finish with between 7 and 11 wins. Yes, that includes the Cleveland Browns.

Photo courtesy of Bleacher Report

Cincinnati Bengals
2013 Record: 11-5
Yards Per Game: 368.2 (10th in the NFL)
Points Per Game: 26.9 (tied-6th in the NFL)
Yards Per Game Allowed: 305.5 (3rd in the NFL)
Points Per Game Allowed: 19.1 (5th in the NFL)

I picked the Bengals to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and when the playoffs began, I hadn't seen anything to deter me from repeating that same prediction. Yes, major injuries on defense caused Cincy to be without they best defensive lineman, Geno Atkins, and their best defensive back, Leon Hall for the postseason. But they were missing those guys for most of the season, and still ended up with one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL.

I'm not worried about Andy Dalton. I'm not a believer in clutch, and as we've seen in the past with Eli Manning and Joe Flacco, average quarterbacks can have a big playoff run, taking their team farther than expected. And I know that the Jets didn't make the Super Bowl in 2009 or 2010, but they were ahead of the Colts at halftime and nearly came back to defeat the Steelers in each year, led by game manager extraordinaire Mark Sanchez.

The point is, you do not have to have an elite quarterback to win in the NFL, especially when that quarterbacks has a great collection of talent around him. A.J. Green is one of the best wideouts in the game, Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu are pretty good extra options, and tight end Tyler Eifert should have a big year because another receiver, Andrew Hawkins, left in free agency.

According to NFLSavant, the Bengals ranked eighth in the NFL in rushing attempts. Expect that ranking to jump to third or fourth this season under new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson.

Jackson has coached many different position groups in his career, and even became a head coach for one season. I don't know if this exactly counts as an NFL coaching job, but he led the Oakland Raiders for a year before being senselessly fired by new General Manager Reggie McKenzie, after leading the team to an 8-8 record; their second in a row (yes, Tom Cable was fired after an 8-8 season the year prior, because logic is ignored in Oakland), and second non-losing season since 2003.

Other than to get myself worked up about how stupid the Raiders have been over the last few years, the point of that was to tell you that under Jackson, the Raiders had one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, led by Michael Bush, Darren McFadden, and Marcel Reece.

I love me some Marcel Reece, but the combination of Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill is better than that crew he had to work with in Oakland. The Bengals will be able to run on just about everybody this season, and set up a lot of easy passes through play action.

Losing defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer should be a pretty big loss on defense, but I think that the talent is good enough to sustain themselves even without a great coach. Also, it's a chicken and egg situation where it's impossible to tell whether Zimmer made the defense much better than it should have been, or the defense was good enough on its own that it made Zimmer look like a genius.

What I do know is that Geno Atkins is an elite talent at defensive tackle, and having him play a full 16 game season should be huge for what was one of the best defenses in the NFL last year. They're also getting back cornerback Leon Hall, and drafted Darqueze Dennard in the first round to play corner.

They lost Michael Johnson to Tampa Bay, which shouldn't be a huge loss, so I expect more of the same from the Cincinnati defense this season.

Once again, I think they will be one of the better teams in the NFL this coming year.

Week 6 Preview: Steelers at Jets, The First of Not Very Many Glowing, Giddy Jets Articles

Photo from northjersey.com

OUT
Steelers: WR Markus Wheaton (finger)

Jets: WR Santonio Holmes (foot/hamstring), CB Dee Milliner (hamstring)

DOUBTFUL
Steelers: None

Jets: None

QUESTIONABLE
Steelers: None

Jets: OL Oday Aboushi (knee), CB Antonio Cromartie (questionable)

PROBABLE
Steelers: QB Ben Roethlisberger (right finger)

Jets: Everyone on this team is probable. Just stop it Rex.

Three Things to Remember about the Jets and Steelers

While watching yesterday's game, I felt the ultimate moment of "I told you so" toward my fellow Jets fans. Talk about overreactions, apparently the Jets are an amazing offensive team. Yeah, right. I'm going to quote the great William Botchway:

"Don't worry, we still suck. Over the course of the season, Stephen Hill will continue to look like Victor Cruz did on Wednesday. Austin Howard will struggle blocking. Shonn Greene will remember that he's Shonn Greene and start to suck again. Also, Sparano has already made some stupid Tebow/Sanchez decisions, he'll continue to screw with Sanchez's rhythm in the middle of drives. Though the defense and special teams really is this good. Expect an average of 13 points for the rest of the year."

Jets Offense is not Good

I wrote that on facebook right in the middle of the Jets making Bills fans circle the wagons.  Why is it that most Jets fans ignored the deficiencies of the offense?

Yesterday, two of these problems reared their ugly heads yesterday as the Jets were dismantled. The receivers forgot to do their jobs, and the running game was anemic. Mark Sanchez actually played a very good game despite his statistics. The only problem was that Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill were getting mauled (the contact was very legal and I applaud the Pittsburgh corners for their play) downfield and could not get open to save their lives. The old Sanchez would have attempted to force the ball into very tight coverage and get picked off. He now sees how stupid that is and checks down to a shorter route hoping that something will happen. Nothing happened.

Shonn Greene is not good. He got hurt early in the game with a head injury, at which point I thought it would be an improvement. Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight did nothing to fill in for Greene until he finally returned in the 2nd half. He came back and continued to do nothing.

Why is it that so many fans were blinded  by one game and forgot all about the horrible shortcomings of most of the offense.

Dick LeBeau is a Genius

I don't know how I seem to forget this all the time, but Dick LeBeau is a defensive mastermind. I keep calling Pittsburgh's defense old and slow, and while I'm somewhat joking, I do mean it. Does it matter? Apparently not; LeBeau has an amazing scheme and it doesn't really matter who plays for him, his defense is good. It obviously helps when he has elite defensive talent. 

Ben Roethlisberger is Elite

Big mistake by me here, but it's easy to forget how good he is. Unless of course he's playing against the team that you root for. It's extremely frustrating to watch your team attempt to stop him. So many free runners at him thanks to his terrible offensive line, but nobody can tackle him. He escapes hits so well, and when he does get whacked, he's so big that he just absorbs it and shrugs off lineman left and right. The touchdown that he threw to Mike Wallace was one of the most astounding things I've seen in a while. He was down. The Jets were closing in on him and he avoided a few hits and launched a bomb to Wallace that made Antonio Cromartie look like a complete bum. He always gets forgotten in the conversation of the best QBs, but this skill of his makes him so good. 

32 in 32: Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers

Read the introduction here
Read the Lions preview here
Denver Broncos tomorrow

2011 Record: 12-4

Key Acquisitions: Mike Adams, David DeCastro, Leonard Pope
Key Departures: James Farrior, Chris Kemoeatu, Mewelde Moore, Hines Ward

The Steelers have talent. They have a lot of talent. Roethlisberger is a top ten quarterback, and he has some offensive weapons around him. The unfortunate part is that they have been plagued by injuries on both sides of the ball. What's even worse is that defensively, not only are they fragile, the personnel is aging, and quickly. I think they'll be decimated by the injury bug this year, and it's finally the year for them to take a step back. They'll still be fine, but not in the playoffs.

Offense
Big Ben is a really good QB. He does a lot for this team, and his strong arm really helps with his young group of receivers. He also has a knack for avoiding hits by escaping the pocket while under pressure. His size and elusiveness in the pocket has been a key to his career because the offensive line hasn't been terribly consistent over the past few years. His ability to play through injuries is really valuable.

Rashard Mendenhall tore his ACL in the last game of the season, and he won't be available until sometime later in the years, if at all. Isaac Redman will take his place as the starter, and I don't know what to expect from him on a full-time basis. He and Jonathan Dwyer can be a fine duo. They can also turn out to be a complete disaster.

Mike Wallace is going to end his holdout and will probably report to camp tomorrow. Let's write him off for at least the first half of the season because people never do well coming out of a holdout, especially this late in camp and he won't get to practice for too long, and won't get into a preseason game. He's also at great risk to get himself injured. Antonio Brown will definitely fill his shoes pretty nicely. After him, there's Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery. Sanders is a young talent who has enough ability to step up into a bigger role. Cotchery is a reliable veteran with good hands. There isn't any depth after these four guys. Or three guys because I know and you know that Wallace will have a lost season.

Heath Miller is a good pass catching tight end who also happens to be a major factor in terms of blocking. He'll be more involved in the offense this year. Leonard Pope isn't great, but he's a good second option at the TE position.

First round pick David DeCastro was supposed to come in and provide an immediate boost to this line. Well, his ACL and MCL had other ideas. Now they'll have to use the motley crew of replacements who did a nice job for them last year, but there are possible issues with consistency. Fellow rookie Mike Adams is a good addition at the left tackle position. Willie Colon is really good when he's on the field. Will Willie be on the field? Time will tell. There's obviously Maurkice Pouncey, who is one of the best centers in the NFL. The position vacated by DeCastro could be the death of this offensive line, and this offense.

Defense
I see a real lack of a pass rush on this roster, especially with two of the key linemen coming off injuries. ACL alert! Third torn anterior cruciate ligament that I have mentioned so far. Casey Hampton will most likely miss some time at the beginning of the year due to his ACL. On top of that, he's 34, and I have questions as to whether or not he can hold up throughout the season. Brett Keisel and Da Beard will have to take a back seat to Cameron Heyward in 2012. The second year defensive end needs to develop. Keisel will end up playing a lot due to the futility of Ziggy Hood. Keisel will get hurt.

The bulk of the sacks on this team will be generated from the linebackers. Lamarr Woodley was dealing with a lingering injury and still ended up terrorizing quarterbacks. James Harrison is old, much like a lot of other defensive players. He's fine, but age will catch up to him. Lawrence Timmons turned in a productive 2011 campaign while Larry Foote isn't very good at this point in his career. Young players Sean Spence, Stevenson Sylvester, and Jason Worilds will be very important for this season and for the future.

Ike Taylor and Keenan Lewis are the cornerbacks. While Taylor was very good last season, he will always be remember for being victimized by Tim Tebow in the playoffs. Just a bad game, so he's still fine. Lewis was horrific last year when he was on the field. The safeties are both very good with good histories. Polamalu has concussion problems, while Ryan Clark is aging quickly.

Special Teams
Shaun Suisham isn't consistent at all and there is no telling how he will do this coming season. Punter Jeremy Kapinos was alright last year, but he could have been better. Antonio Brown is a very good return man, but I'm afraid that his new offensive role will scare the Steelers away from using him on returns too often.

9-7, 2nd in AFC North