NFL Picks: Super Bowl

Photo courtesy of SB Nation

It is time. the Conference Championship Games feel like a lifetime ago, which is probably a testament to how excited I am for this game. Usually, the two weeks feel kind of long, but this year was quite bad. It may be because this is the first time in a while that I gave absolutely no effort to even glance at the Pro Bowl for a second, meaning I've been entirely deprived of football since the Panthers destroyed the Cardinals. And it's not because I was thinking about it all the time, but moreso because I was waiting for the day to come, and the day seemingly never game.

But, today is the day.

Let's get on with it.

NFL Picks: Championship Round

Photo courtesy of Sports Illustrated

This week, the motto "keep it simple, stupid" really comes into play when picking these games this week.

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS. 

NFL Picks: Divisional Round

Photo courtesy of SB Nation

Long story short, my picks sucked last week. I was hoping to go 11-0 in the playoffs this year, but, alas.

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS.

NFL Picks: Divisional Round

Photo courtesy of Grantland

I got three games right when picking straight up last week, but the Panthers covered, and the Cowboys didn't, meaning that I went 1-3 in my picks. Once again, a prime example of why this simply isn't my year.

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS. 

NFL Picks: Wild Card Round and Playoff Preview

Photo courtesy of Bleacher Report

It's the end of a long season, and it's time for the playoffs. Things get started today as we kick off the worst Wild Card round ever, but that will give way to what should be an awesome second round next week.

Now let's take a trip back to September, when I posted my NFL Preview. I got seven of the twelve playoff teams correct, but there was an interesting conference split. I got nearly every AFC playoff team correct, with my only mishap being me placing the Jets in the sixth spot and leaving the Steelers out completely. That means that I only got two teams correct in the NFC: the Seahawks and the Packers (who I nearly left out anyway). I figured that the NFC would be a very interesting conference this year, but little did I know I'd be so wrong about so many things.

Speaking of being wrong, let's talk about my picks this year! I naturally closed out the year with a 7-9 Week 17, meaning that I finished the year 18 games under, compared to 13 games over in 2013. This also means that even if I sweep through the postseason, there's no chance of be sniffing .500 for this season overall. I'm disgusted.

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS. 

Resurrection of Lindley (+6.5) over PANTHERS. It seems obvious to everyone that the Cardinals are going to lose this afternoon, but I'm not so sure. The fact that the Cards are 11-5 is incredible considering the innumerable amount of injuries that they've suffered, dating back to losing Daryl Washington and Darnell Dockett to season ending injuries even before Week 1. All credit goes to Bruce Arians and future Jets head coach Todd Bowles for the job they've done all year working with a depleted roster. Asking them to win a road playoff game with Ryan Lindley as the starting quarterback would usually be an impossible task, but not against a sub-.500 division winner in the 7-8-1 Panthers.

Carolina had won four games in a row on their way to winning the NFC South, simply because no one else wanted to. I don't trust them at all, but their defense has improved over the last few weeks and Cam Newton has been keeping their offense afloat.

Superior coaching will keep the game close, but in the end, Newton will be the best player on the field, and for the second time, a team blow .500 will advance to the second round. This game is going to be terrible. I suggest you avert your eyes.

Panthers 23, Cardinals 17.

Ravens (+3) over STEELERS. I'm not nearly as excited for this game as I should be. I recognize that Ravens-Steelers is one of the best rivalries in the league. I recognize that these are divisional foes playing each other for the third time this season after splitting the first two games. I get it. I recognize that the Steelers have the best offense in the NFL and will go up against a pesky Ravens defense (even with their gruesome secondary) that will be getting back Haloti Ngata.

But am I chomping at the bit to watch it happen?

Not really.

Unlike the first game, however, I will make sure to watch this because it will be a fun game. The key here is how Pittsburgh deals with the loss of Le'Veon Bell. The star running back will be out for today's game, and they don't really have anyone to replace him. Rookie Josh Harris and Ben Tate, fresh off of being cut for the second time this year, are going to be leading the running game, which seriously hinders Pittsburgh's offense.

At the same time, the Steelers still have Antonio Brown on their team. Not only is he amazing, the Ravens have absolutely no one that can cover him. And yet, I think Baltimore can overcome that. Their pass rush is great, and should frustrate Big Ben throughout the night, even if sacking Ben is like a midget dunking on Dikembe Mutombo. The Steelers offense runs through Roethlisberger, Brown, and Bell. And one of those pieces will be out tonight.

UPSET ALERT.

Ravens 28, Steelers 24.  

Bengals (+3.5) over COLTS. For the third year in a row, the Colts are 11-5, for the third year in a row they are a lot shakier than their record suggests, and for the third year in a row, I'm picking against them in the first round.

Indianapolis went 2-4 against playoff teams this season. They were embarrassed by the Steelers, Patriots, and Cowboys, lost to the Broncos. One of the playoff teams that they beat was the Ravens. The other...the Bengals. In fact, they didn't just beat Cincinnati, they shut the Bengals out 27-0.

So, why in God's name am I picking the Bengals in this game?

Two reasons: inconsistency, and Jeremy Hill.

We'll start with the first. Both of these teams, and their quarterbacks can be erratic at times. That Week 7 game was simply a case of the Colts playing their best game while the Bengals played their absolute worst. the stars aligned and it led to a beatdown. It would take a lot of luck (and no, I don't mean Luck) for that to happen again.

As for the other big factor, it's pretty self explanatory. These two teams played before Jeremy Hill broke out and took over Cincinnati's rushing attack. He's been awesome, and the combination of him and Giovani Bernard has been great. Bernard has been shifted to the role of almost purely a receiving back, while Hill has been tearing it up as the lead back. In related news, the Colts have a terrible run defense, so the Bengals should be able to take advantage of that this time around in a close game.

Once again, UPSET ALERT.

Bengals 31, Colts 29. 

COWBOYS (-6.5) over Lions. This is the only favorite that I'm taking all weekend, and it makes me quite nervous. There is a good chance that I'm wrong and the game is a lot closer than expected, and it's not out of the question that the Lions win outright and perpetuate the insanity that Tony Romo cannot win a big game.

Detroit has one of the best defenses in the NFL, and if they can slow down, and possibly shut down the potent Dallas offense, then they should win easily. But I don't see that happening.

Everything is working perfectly on the offensive side of the ball for the Cowboys. Their offensive line is beating up their opponents up front, they are elite at running back, wide receiver, and most important quarterback, and each of these pieces are meshing perfectly.

On the other side of the ball, Detroit's offense has a lot of talent but has struggled to get going all year. I'm going to heap a good portion of the blame for that onto Matthew Stafford, because he's not good enough to take advantage of the weapons around him in Joique Bell, Calvin Johnson, and Golden Tate. This is the perfect team for the Cowboys defense to take advantage of. With Dallas's ball control offense, the Lions will rarely see the ball, and they aren't the type of quick strike offense that can score quickly enough to keep the game close.

And for that reason, I'm laying the touchdown.

Cowboys 27, Lions 17.

Divisional Playoffs
PATRIOTS over Ravens. 

BRONCOS over Bengals. 

SEAHAWKS over Panthers. 

Cowboys over PACKERS. 

Conference Championships
PATRIOTS over Broncos. 

SEAHAWKS over Cowboys.

Super Bowl
Seahawks over Patriots. 

Last Week: 7-9

Season: 117-135-4

NFL Preview Extravaganza 2014: NFC South

Photo courtesy of Who Dat Dish

Last year's division winner will regress horribly, and the two cellar dwellers will be a lot better. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints (outside of the post-bounty scandal season) have been the one constant in this division year after year.

Photo courtesy of ESPN

Carolina Panthers
2013 Record: 12-4
Yards Per Game: 316.8 (26th in the NFL)
Points Per Game: 22.9 (18th in the NFL)
Yards Per Game Allowed: 301.2 (2nd in the NFL)
Points Per Game Allowed: 15.1 (2nd in the NFL)

After surprising many, and riding their great defense to a division title last season, the Carolina Panthers got a lot worse during the offseason, and will end up being among the worst teams in the NFL.

The offense was nothing special last year, and it should be a lot worse now. There was a bunch of turnover in the receiving corps, and most of it wasn't impressive. They drafted Kelvin Benjamin, which I liked, but signing Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant to be guys that play legitimate roles on this offense is worrisome.

Left tackle Jordan Gross retired this offseason, which is a problem for the 2014 Panthers, because they did not find a suitable replacement for him. Outside of Ryan Kalil in the middle, the offensive line is an issue.

As for the defense, the front seven is great, and everything else is horrible. I mentioned when previewing the AFC South that a great pass rush can make up for some deficiencies in the secondary, but that is not the case when the entire secondary is bad. As great as Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson are at getting to the quarterback, the guys playing behind them will be victimized before they even get to the opposing signal caller.

I still think that Carolina has the best front seven in the NFL, but a weak secondary, a bad offense, and a strong conference will hold this team back for a year. There is enough talent currently on the team that even if they are terrible, whoever they take in the first round of the draft (probably a defensive back) could propel them back to the playoffs.

NFL Picks: Divisional Round

Coming off of last week's thrilling comeback, can Andrew Luck pull out another one in New England? Photo from usatoday.com

So, last week, the Chiefs started off well. They jumped out to a 38-10 lead at the start of the third, even though Jamaal Charles, who was their entire offense all year, at the beginning of the game. But, all of a sudden, their offense stalled, and were only able to muster two field goals for the rest of the game. Early in the fourth, they lost their second string running back, and the guy who won me my fantasy league, Knile Davis, and the offense stalled. I'm not saying that Charles is replaceable, but Davis was certainly able to mask Kansas City's deficiencies pretty well. The drop off from him to Cyrus Gray was awful, and spelled doom for the Chiefs, especially since they had already lost WR Donnie Avery, and CB Brandon Flowers for the game.

That game also illustrated the inconsistency of the Colts, who started off horribly, allowing all sorts of big plays down the field in the first half, but neutralized the deep passing game as the game went along. The same thing happened to their offense, they got a lot better in the second half. It's hard to explain this, and it makes the Colts an almost impossible team to forecast.

While I predicted the Chiefs to win, my pick was still right, as they covered the spread by half a point. Yeah, I know, I got lucky. I'll take it.

As for the next game, my loss was also pretty reasonable. The Saints played better defense than I expected, which I considered a possibility. Oh well.

I'll get back to the Chargers-Bengals game.

The Niners-Packers game went almost exactly as I thought it would. I had the score as 24-20, so I was just a single point off the actual final. It was a great game to watch.

Okay, now, it's time. What the hell Cincinnati? They saved their worst game of the season for last week. Yeah, the Chargers defense played a lot better than it had for most of the year, but that's not why they won. There were so many stupid offensive mistakes, and that's so inexcusable. I can't believe what I saw. I do still believe that they are the better team, and, 9 out of 10 times, they would have won that game.

I do still believe that Andy Dalton can be a Super Bowl quarterback. Obviously, he's not ideal, and it;s up to the Bengals to try to find a better option than him, but, for now, if he's their leader, they're fine. He can win in the playoffs. That game was an anomaly. And a disgusting anomaly at that.

So, now, it's time for this week's picks.

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS.

Week 15 Preview: Jets at Panthers, The First and Probably Last, "Yes, Encouragement!" Articles

I expected the Jets to control the game last week, and the fact that they did was a great sign for the rest of the year and their future. Geno Smith still made some horrible throws, but at the same time looked like not only an NFL quarterback, but a pretty good one, for most of the game. It was great to see him shake off whatever had been plaguing him the last few weeks and pull out a performance like that. He showcased all of his skills: his deep throw ability, his accuracy, and his mobility. That doesn't necessarily mean that he won't fall into another slump this week, but rather that he has the bounce back ability that an NFL quarterback requires. He regained his confidence, and it showed.

Geno leads his Jets into a very tough matchup in Carolina this week, against the second best run defense in the league, and a team that forces a lot of turnovers. That doesn't bode well for the Jets, because that means that Geno Smith will have to play great to have a chance in this one.

As for the Panthers side of the ball, the Jets have the best run defense in the league and it's not very close. Credit Rex Ryan for putting together such a dominant defensive line to give his team a major strength. They do at least one thing at an elite level, which is more than can be said about most teams. Luckily, that strength will be in full force today because the Panthers are better when they are running the ball. Cam Newton is great at both passing and running, but outside of Greg Olsen and Steve Smith, who has been pretty inconsistent this year, he doesn't have much by way of weapons. Certainly, he has big play ability, and as I've said, the Jets are vulnerable in that area, but there's no guarantee.

Overall, the Panthers are one of the best teams in the NFL. But, as for today, the Jets have the ability to stop the run better than anyone else, creating a bad matchup for the Panthers. This will be closer than you think, but still a Carolina victory.

Jets (+10.5) over PANTHERS.

Panthers 24, Jets 17

32 in 32: Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panthers

Read the introduction here

Read the Dolphins preview here

Buffalo Bills tomorrow

2011 Record: 6-10

Key Acquisitions:  Bruce Campbell,  Luke Kuechly, Reggie Smith, Mike Tolbert

Key Departures: Dan Connor, Geoff Schwartz, Jeremy Shockey, Travelle Wharton

Cam Newton's rookie season was just ridiculous. Possibly the greatest season for a rookie quarterback ever. The offense ranked 7th in the league last year, but that side of the ball isn't the main issue. The defense ranked 28th and the addition of Luke Kuechly only helps. It will be tough to navigate this division, but with a few improvements over the next couple of years, the Panthers could shoot themselves into the top level in the  stacked NFC, because the quarterback can definitely take them there. 

Offense

Cameron Newton's running ability is amazing. On top of that, he has one of the strongest arms in the league. His only issue is that his accuracy can be shoddy at times, and he needs to see the field a little bit better. I'm chalking that up to being a rookie, because that is always the problem with rookie QBs. He'll one of the best in the NFL soon because not only is be a great runner, he's so hard to tackle out in the open field. He's a big boy. 

I like the combo that they have going with DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart. They complement each other very nicely, and both are good runners. These two with the running threat of Newton will create a very good rushing attack. 

Steve Smith has really good chemistry with Cam Newton, and he is a legit #1 receiver in the NFL. There are a lot of decent guys on this team but no second option. Deep group but I don't see great playmakers. 

Greg Olsen and Ben Hartsock are good tight ends. Olsen is the actual threat of the two, but Hartsock has his  moments. He's a big guy who can catch the ball in the red zone. 

Jordan Gross and Ryan Kalil are two of the best offensive lineman in the league. Bruce Campbell is the only other guy that I like on this line. The explosiveness of the backfield can get around the weak spots, but if those are figured out, then this team's dangerous running game just got better. 

Defense

Charles Johnson is a threat off the edge of the line. He has a knack for getting after the quarterback. That's what happens when you are trained by Julius Peppers. Antwan Applewhite is decent on the other side, but I'm not liking much else on this line, but I love the linebackers however. James Anderson and Jon Beason are established veterans in the NFL. Luke Kuechly is going to be very, very good. Very, very good. I love him. He's a leader defensively, a really smart player, and he can make tackles. He knows how to drag a guy down.

Chris Gamble is probably in the second tier of corners in the league. He's really good at covering, and when he doesn't make the play, his teammates are in position to get a pick. Darius Butler and Charles Godfrey are both decent in the defensive backfield. Not the biggest fan of Captain Munnerlyn.

Special Teams

Olindo Mare still has one of the best names in the NFL. As a kicker, he tends to be streaky. Nick Harris has been in the league for a while now, and he's been able to stick around. I've still yet to figure out who is going to return kicks on this team.

7-9, T-2nd in NFC South