NFL Picks: Wild Card Round and Playoff Preview

Photo courtesy of Sporting News

So, I didn't do preseason predictions this year. I meant to, and thanks to poor planning and the obviously hectic nature of my first few weeks in college, I was left with not enough time to complete thorough projections for every team in the league. Based on my general thoughts from summer, some of this season's results have been surprising, such as the Panthers morphing into a powerhouse with no thanks owed to their receiving corps, Peyton Manning becoming a shell of a shell of his former self, Green Bay's descent to complete and utter mortality, and Kirk You Like That Cousins's ascent to glory. Still, I was right about quite a few things, such as Arizona being a very good team, the Pats obviously continuing their run of dominance in the AFC, and the Vikings taking quite a few people by surprise.

Of course, all this reflection can only mean one thing: it's playoff time. One of the best months of the year is ahead, which will culminate in the crowning of a new Super Bowl Champion at Levi's Stadium. This season has been pretty weird overall, especially considering that Brian Hoyer, A.J. McCarron, and the aforementioned Cousins are starting home games this weekend. Despite this, my picks have not suffered, going 128-120-7 on the season. Of course, the one issue with that is that there are 256 games in a season, yet I've only accounted for 255. Small error that I don't quite have the time to deal with right now because I'm flying back to campus soon, but I will fix. Either way, this was a lot better than my dismal record from last season.

After my picks for this week, I'll continue with my predictions for the rest of the postseason. Let's get on with the show!

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS.



Chiefs (-3) over TEXANS.

The Chiefs are the hottest team in the NFL, seeing as they just reeled off ten straight wins to propel themselves into the playoffs. They went from a 1-5 team on the verge of their season suffering a cruel death, to a sexy pick by some smart people to possibly challenge the Patriots in the AFC playoffs. I'm one of those people. I'm all in on these Chiefs, led by their rejuvenated defense, and their sudden discovery of a legitimate passing game.

The Texans on the other hand, are a pretty dangerous team in their own right. Despite playing like trash to begin the year, to the point that I continued to bash them week after week as they stayed alive in the AFC South race because no one else wanted to win the division, they can cause the Chiefs, or any team in the playoffs trouble. J.J. Watt's presence on defense continues to be an underrated force, and DeAndre Hopkins is easily one of the best receivers in the league, and impossible to cover for four quarters. Playing at home, they're going to be a tough out.

But by 7:30, they will be out.

Chiefs 21, Texans 17.

BENGALS (+1.5) over Steelers.

Injuries on both sides will affect the gameplans of these teams heavily. Without Andy Dalton, the Bengals will rely on a more run heavy attack than usual, as well as having the receivers run shorter routes to protect A.J. McCarron, only in his fourth career start.

On the Pittsburgh sideline, the loss of DeAngelo Williams will prove to be important, but possibly not deadly. The well balanced attack boasted by the Steelers all year will not be as prevalent with Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman in the backfield.

Both teams can stay afloat without Dalton or Williams, but the real story here is on defense. Pittsburgh's defense, to be blunt, isn't very good. The days of the Steel Curtain are long gone, and this team has a much different identity. Cincy, on the other hand, has a strong defense that will give Roethlisberger and Co. lots of trouble.

Most importantly, McCarron isn't that bad. He can be a highly effective game manager, even when facing off against a high powered offense. The Bengals are equipped with more than enough weapons for someone like him to match the Steelers' scoring.

Bengals 30, Steelers 27

Seahawks (-4) over VIKINGS.

Plain and simple, the Seahawks are a much better version of the Vikings. These two teams are built similarly, with a great running game, an athletic quarterback who is capable of making big throws when needed, and of course, defense. Despite Marshawn Lynch being ruled out of this game, the problem for Minnesota lies in the fact that Russell Wilson is light years better than Teddy Bridgewater. Wilson's scrambling ability extends plays well beyond their expiration, and leads to positive gains on broken plays. Bridgewater tries to do this, but just isn't as skilled. Seattle's going to minimize Peterson's impact, as much as any team actually can, and force the Vikings the win the game in the air. I believe in Teddy, but not that much.

Seahawks 31, Vikings 17.

WASHINGTON YOU LIKE THATS (-1) over Packers.

You like that?

The power of Kirk Cousins should be enough of an explanation, but if that's not enough, add in the fact that the Packers are simply not the same team this year. Their offense has been shockingly mediocre, and their defense hasn't played incredibly well. They backed their way into the postseason thanks to the Lions melting down and a ridiculous Hail Mary play that would be completed 1 out of 1,000 tries.

Washington on the other hand, thanks in part to their famous rallying cry, has been playing very well recently as they almost coasted to an NFC East title in December. 

Washington 24, Packers 20

Based on these results, here are my picks for the rest of the playoffs 

Divisional Round

PATRIOTS over Bengals. 

Chiefs over BRONCOS. 

PANTHERS over Seahawks. 

CARDINALS over Washington Professional Football Team. 

Championship Round 

Chiefs over PATRIOTS. 

Cardinals over PANTHERS. 

Super Bowl 

Cardinals over Chiefs. 

Enjoy round one, folks. 

Last Week: 8-8

Season: 128-120-7

NFL Picks: Wild Card Round and Playoff Preview

Photo courtesy of Bleacher Report

It's the end of a long season, and it's time for the playoffs. Things get started today as we kick off the worst Wild Card round ever, but that will give way to what should be an awesome second round next week.

Now let's take a trip back to September, when I posted my NFL Preview. I got seven of the twelve playoff teams correct, but there was an interesting conference split. I got nearly every AFC playoff team correct, with my only mishap being me placing the Jets in the sixth spot and leaving the Steelers out completely. That means that I only got two teams correct in the NFC: the Seahawks and the Packers (who I nearly left out anyway). I figured that the NFC would be a very interesting conference this year, but little did I know I'd be so wrong about so many things.

Speaking of being wrong, let's talk about my picks this year! I naturally closed out the year with a 7-9 Week 17, meaning that I finished the year 18 games under, compared to 13 games over in 2013. This also means that even if I sweep through the postseason, there's no chance of be sniffing .500 for this season overall. I'm disgusted.

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS. 

Resurrection of Lindley (+6.5) over PANTHERS. It seems obvious to everyone that the Cardinals are going to lose this afternoon, but I'm not so sure. The fact that the Cards are 11-5 is incredible considering the innumerable amount of injuries that they've suffered, dating back to losing Daryl Washington and Darnell Dockett to season ending injuries even before Week 1. All credit goes to Bruce Arians and future Jets head coach Todd Bowles for the job they've done all year working with a depleted roster. Asking them to win a road playoff game with Ryan Lindley as the starting quarterback would usually be an impossible task, but not against a sub-.500 division winner in the 7-8-1 Panthers.

Carolina had won four games in a row on their way to winning the NFC South, simply because no one else wanted to. I don't trust them at all, but their defense has improved over the last few weeks and Cam Newton has been keeping their offense afloat.

Superior coaching will keep the game close, but in the end, Newton will be the best player on the field, and for the second time, a team blow .500 will advance to the second round. This game is going to be terrible. I suggest you avert your eyes.

Panthers 23, Cardinals 17.

Ravens (+3) over STEELERS. I'm not nearly as excited for this game as I should be. I recognize that Ravens-Steelers is one of the best rivalries in the league. I recognize that these are divisional foes playing each other for the third time this season after splitting the first two games. I get it. I recognize that the Steelers have the best offense in the NFL and will go up against a pesky Ravens defense (even with their gruesome secondary) that will be getting back Haloti Ngata.

But am I chomping at the bit to watch it happen?

Not really.

Unlike the first game, however, I will make sure to watch this because it will be a fun game. The key here is how Pittsburgh deals with the loss of Le'Veon Bell. The star running back will be out for today's game, and they don't really have anyone to replace him. Rookie Josh Harris and Ben Tate, fresh off of being cut for the second time this year, are going to be leading the running game, which seriously hinders Pittsburgh's offense.

At the same time, the Steelers still have Antonio Brown on their team. Not only is he amazing, the Ravens have absolutely no one that can cover him. And yet, I think Baltimore can overcome that. Their pass rush is great, and should frustrate Big Ben throughout the night, even if sacking Ben is like a midget dunking on Dikembe Mutombo. The Steelers offense runs through Roethlisberger, Brown, and Bell. And one of those pieces will be out tonight.

UPSET ALERT.

Ravens 28, Steelers 24.  

Bengals (+3.5) over COLTS. For the third year in a row, the Colts are 11-5, for the third year in a row they are a lot shakier than their record suggests, and for the third year in a row, I'm picking against them in the first round.

Indianapolis went 2-4 against playoff teams this season. They were embarrassed by the Steelers, Patriots, and Cowboys, lost to the Broncos. One of the playoff teams that they beat was the Ravens. The other...the Bengals. In fact, they didn't just beat Cincinnati, they shut the Bengals out 27-0.

So, why in God's name am I picking the Bengals in this game?

Two reasons: inconsistency, and Jeremy Hill.

We'll start with the first. Both of these teams, and their quarterbacks can be erratic at times. That Week 7 game was simply a case of the Colts playing their best game while the Bengals played their absolute worst. the stars aligned and it led to a beatdown. It would take a lot of luck (and no, I don't mean Luck) for that to happen again.

As for the other big factor, it's pretty self explanatory. These two teams played before Jeremy Hill broke out and took over Cincinnati's rushing attack. He's been awesome, and the combination of him and Giovani Bernard has been great. Bernard has been shifted to the role of almost purely a receiving back, while Hill has been tearing it up as the lead back. In related news, the Colts have a terrible run defense, so the Bengals should be able to take advantage of that this time around in a close game.

Once again, UPSET ALERT.

Bengals 31, Colts 29. 

COWBOYS (-6.5) over Lions. This is the only favorite that I'm taking all weekend, and it makes me quite nervous. There is a good chance that I'm wrong and the game is a lot closer than expected, and it's not out of the question that the Lions win outright and perpetuate the insanity that Tony Romo cannot win a big game.

Detroit has one of the best defenses in the NFL, and if they can slow down, and possibly shut down the potent Dallas offense, then they should win easily. But I don't see that happening.

Everything is working perfectly on the offensive side of the ball for the Cowboys. Their offensive line is beating up their opponents up front, they are elite at running back, wide receiver, and most important quarterback, and each of these pieces are meshing perfectly.

On the other side of the ball, Detroit's offense has a lot of talent but has struggled to get going all year. I'm going to heap a good portion of the blame for that onto Matthew Stafford, because he's not good enough to take advantage of the weapons around him in Joique Bell, Calvin Johnson, and Golden Tate. This is the perfect team for the Cowboys defense to take advantage of. With Dallas's ball control offense, the Lions will rarely see the ball, and they aren't the type of quick strike offense that can score quickly enough to keep the game close.

And for that reason, I'm laying the touchdown.

Cowboys 27, Lions 17.

Divisional Playoffs
PATRIOTS over Ravens. 

BRONCOS over Bengals. 

SEAHAWKS over Panthers. 

Cowboys over PACKERS. 

Conference Championships
PATRIOTS over Broncos. 

SEAHAWKS over Cowboys.

Super Bowl
Seahawks over Patriots. 

Last Week: 7-9

Season: 117-135-4

NFL Preview Extravaganza 2014: AFC North

Photo courtesy of Dynasty Nerds

In terms of competitiveness, the AFC North may be the best division in all of football. There are no amazing teams in this division, but none of the four teams can be considered bad. They're all going to finish with between 7 and 11 wins. Yes, that includes the Cleveland Browns.

Photo courtesy of Bleacher Report

Cincinnati Bengals
2013 Record: 11-5
Yards Per Game: 368.2 (10th in the NFL)
Points Per Game: 26.9 (tied-6th in the NFL)
Yards Per Game Allowed: 305.5 (3rd in the NFL)
Points Per Game Allowed: 19.1 (5th in the NFL)

I picked the Bengals to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and when the playoffs began, I hadn't seen anything to deter me from repeating that same prediction. Yes, major injuries on defense caused Cincy to be without they best defensive lineman, Geno Atkins, and their best defensive back, Leon Hall for the postseason. But they were missing those guys for most of the season, and still ended up with one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL.

I'm not worried about Andy Dalton. I'm not a believer in clutch, and as we've seen in the past with Eli Manning and Joe Flacco, average quarterbacks can have a big playoff run, taking their team farther than expected. And I know that the Jets didn't make the Super Bowl in 2009 or 2010, but they were ahead of the Colts at halftime and nearly came back to defeat the Steelers in each year, led by game manager extraordinaire Mark Sanchez.

The point is, you do not have to have an elite quarterback to win in the NFL, especially when that quarterbacks has a great collection of talent around him. A.J. Green is one of the best wideouts in the game, Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu are pretty good extra options, and tight end Tyler Eifert should have a big year because another receiver, Andrew Hawkins, left in free agency.

According to NFLSavant, the Bengals ranked eighth in the NFL in rushing attempts. Expect that ranking to jump to third or fourth this season under new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson.

Jackson has coached many different position groups in his career, and even became a head coach for one season. I don't know if this exactly counts as an NFL coaching job, but he led the Oakland Raiders for a year before being senselessly fired by new General Manager Reggie McKenzie, after leading the team to an 8-8 record; their second in a row (yes, Tom Cable was fired after an 8-8 season the year prior, because logic is ignored in Oakland), and second non-losing season since 2003.

Other than to get myself worked up about how stupid the Raiders have been over the last few years, the point of that was to tell you that under Jackson, the Raiders had one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, led by Michael Bush, Darren McFadden, and Marcel Reece.

I love me some Marcel Reece, but the combination of Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill is better than that crew he had to work with in Oakland. The Bengals will be able to run on just about everybody this season, and set up a lot of easy passes through play action.

Losing defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer should be a pretty big loss on defense, but I think that the talent is good enough to sustain themselves even without a great coach. Also, it's a chicken and egg situation where it's impossible to tell whether Zimmer made the defense much better than it should have been, or the defense was good enough on its own that it made Zimmer look like a genius.

What I do know is that Geno Atkins is an elite talent at defensive tackle, and having him play a full 16 game season should be huge for what was one of the best defenses in the NFL last year. They're also getting back cornerback Leon Hall, and drafted Darqueze Dennard in the first round to play corner.

They lost Michael Johnson to Tampa Bay, which shouldn't be a huge loss, so I expect more of the same from the Cincinnati defense this season.

Once again, I think they will be one of the better teams in the NFL this coming year.

Jets at Bengals Preseason Recap

Photo courtesy of NY Post

Final Score: Jets 25, Bengals 17

First Star: QB Andy Dalton- 8/8, 144 passing yards, 1 passing TD, 158.3 passer rating

Second Star: S Calvin Pryor- 3 tackles, 3 assists, 1 fumble recovery

Third Star: RB Chris Johnson- 10 rushes, 63 yards, 2 receptions, 1 yard

The Good
Calvin Pryor looked great in his first in-game action. He constantly found himself in the backfield after breaking through the offensive line. It was a very good sign for the rookie's future.

Geno Smith and the rest of the offense found their footing towards the end of the second half, putting together two touchdown drives in the second quarter.

Antonio Allen was bad at times, but for someone playing cornerback for the first time in his career, actually looked decent overall. Still, he'll need to improve quickly if Rex Ryan is going to need him to play an important in the regular season.

I.K. Enemkpali showed off his speed and agility by exploding off the line to block a punt through the back of the end zone for a safety. It doesn't really mean much, as it's only one play, but it's a good sign.

The Bad
The offense only looked good when they were matched up against Cincinnati's second team unit.

The Ugly
Penalties. The Jets were called for 12 penalties totaling 133 yards over the course of the game. Offensive linemen Willie Colon and Breno Giacomini were playing generally undisciplined football early and caused a few scuffles between the two teams.

Tajh Boyd looked absolutely terrible in the fourth quarter, going 1 for 5 with 6 passing yards. I'd like to see him get another chance later in the preseason to compete for the third string job along with Matt Simms, but he didn't do himself any favors yesterday.

The Weird
Both Calvin Pryor and running back Alex Green wore #25 in last night's game. I know it's just preseason, but I've never seen that before. And I doubt it's legal.

Quarterback Playing Time
1st Quarter- Geno Smith
2nd Quarter- Geno Smith
3rd Quarter- Michael Vick
4th Quarter-Tajh Boyd
Did Not Play- Matt Simms

NFL Picks: Wild Card Round and Playoff Preview

While it won't quite be a repeat of last year's Divisional Playoffs, Colin Kaepernick and the Niners will win this week's game over the Packers. Photo from sfgate.com

We have reached the playoffs! Finally! It's time for all the non-football fans in your life to be completely shocked that the NFL has now taken over both Saturday and Sunday. It's time for you to randomly and nonsensically adopt a team for the next month, going through the ups and downs that come with being a devoted fan of theirs, and you can't explain why your mind selected that team.

First, we should take a quick look back at my preseason predictions. I got 7 out of the 12 playoff teams correct, but, I'd like to credit myself for the Panthers as well. I know you may not believe me, but, the day before I posted that article, I had the Panthers at 11-5 winning the NFC South. But, my ex boyfriend Josh Freeman sent me a long, drunken text about why I should trust him again, and how he's sorry for the mistakes he's made in the past.

So, he went out and got benched before Week 4, and released the week after. Thanks a lot Josh. He talked me out of supporting the Panthers. But that's my fault for listening to him, so I'll accept that, and know to never put my faith in Josh Freeman. Ever again.

(Smash cut to him in a Jets uniform and me begging that they start him over Geno Smith)

Anyway, I wasn't surprised by the Panthers suddenly rising to the top of the NFC. I was surprised by the Texans and Falcons completely falling apart, which, frankly, surprised everyone. Where I made one of my bigger mistakes, was on the Chargers. A lot of people thought they'd be fine, maybe even a little worse, but of course, I went to the extreme, pegging them as the 29th best team in the NFL. And now, of course, they are playing in the playoffs. My bad.

Coming off a much improved season in terms of my weekly picks, in which I ended the year at 132-119-5, I'm feeling good about making a run much like my 9-2 playoff outing last year. Some of this week's games are kind of hard to predict, but don't worry, I'm here. I will also have my revised predictions for the rest of the postseason.

UPSET ALERT next to games in which I think the underdog will win outright, not just cover. Home team in CAPS. 

Week 8 Preview: Jets at Bengals, The First of Many Eh, This Team is Fine Articles

Photo from newsday.com

OUT 
Jets: WR Santonio Holmes (hamstring)

Bengals: CB Leon Hall (Achilles), DT Devon Still (elbow)

DOUBTFUL 
Jets: None.

Bengals: None.

QUESTIONABLE
Jets: C Nick Mangold (ribs), WR Greg Salas (knee)

Bengals: RB Rex Burkhead (calf)

PROBABLE
Jets: 13 guys listed, my limit is 10. 13 happens to be greater than 10. So, I'm not typing all those names out when their gam status was never really in doubt.

Bengals: DE Wallace Gilbert (knee), WR Marvin Jones (shoulder), LB Rey Maualuga (hamstring), CB Terence Newman (ankle)

32 in 32: Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals

Read the introduction here
Read the Titans preview here
Atlanta Falcons tomorrow

2011 Record: 9-7

Key Acquisitions: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Dre Kirkpatrick, Terrence Newman, Mohamed Sanu, Devon Still, Travelle Wharton, Kevin Zeitler
Key Departures: Cedric Benson, Andre Caldwell, Chris Crocker, Keith Rivers, Frostee Rucker, Jerome Simpson, Bobbie Williams

This team was reasonably surprising last year, even though people knew that the defense would be very good. Andy Dalton was much better than expected. Everyone knew that he would be good eventually, but the chemistry that he quickly fostered with A.J. Green was amazing. Green is a great receiver who whose combination of size and speed makes him a special talent. In terms of weapons this offense is very thin outside of Green. Defensively they have lost a few players, but should still be very good. They have a tougher schedule than last year. Dalton struggled near the end of last year, and he's probably going to be affected by the classic sophmore slump, so I expect him to take a step back. Those issues combined will lead the this team missing the playoffs. It wouldn't surprise me if they do get into the postseason because the AFC is not as deep as usual.

Offense
Andy Dalton's accuracy as a passer is a major asset to this team. He becomes much more erratic as the passes are deeper, which is why A.J. Green is so valuable. Throw it anywhere near Green's tall frame, he has a chance to catch it. Outside of that, Dalton is a great QB to move the ball down the field using short passes.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a fine running back who looked much better than he actually is because of the New England offense. He's an average runner who won't really make great plays unless the offensive line creates giant holes for him. This offensive line will consistently give him a lot of daylight.

I've already talked enough about A.J. Green, but other than him, the receivers on this team are not very good. It looks like Brandon Tate is going to be the #2 receiver, and he's another Pats castoff and he hasn't done much of anything in his career as a wide receiver. Mohamed Sanu was chosen in the 3rd round of this year's draft, and he's going to have to play a pivotal role on this roster. There is absolutely no depth here.

Jermaine Gresham and Donald Lee form a pretty nice combination at the tight end position. Gresham is a real weapon while Lee has shown that he has pretty good hands.

Travelle Wharton and Kevin Zeitler will be new starters on this pretty good offensive line. Wharton has always been a solid blocker, while Zeitler, a rookie whose main job is to be better than Bobbie Williams. Williams is a really good blocker, but at his advanced age, it's hard to maintain his success over the 16 game season. The rest of the line consists of returning starters Kyle Cook, Andre Smith, and Andrew Whitworth. All are fine at what they do, nothing spectacular, but in the NFL it's hard to find an offensive line with 5 guys that are at least average.

Defense
Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson showed last year that they could consistently apply pressure to the opposing offense. Both are very good young pass rushers. Geno Atkins led to team in sacks at the defensive tackle position, which does not happen very often. He's a rock in the middle who has the athleticism to get after the quarterback. He also terrorizes running backs consistently. Domata Peko is a very good defensive tackle in his own right. His strength is stopping the run, but he attracts extra attention from pass blockers because of his size. It would help this front seven if Keith Rivers was still with the team, but he could never stay healthy, so trading him was a reasonable decision. Rey Maualuga is an above average linebacker who does a lot on defense. Thomas Howard and Manny Lawson both did well last year.

It will be very hard to throw on this team anywhere near the sidelines. The corners are not only very top heavy, this is a very deep position. Leon Hall is a really good corner, but he is coming off of an Achilles injury and it is not certain whether or not he can play (and if so, how effectively) this year. They went out and drafted athletic Dre Kirkpatrick in the first round this year who happens to be compared to Antonio Cromartie a lot (which is a very good thing, but only when on the field. Outside of that...I think he wants to avoid those parallels). Nate Clements and Terrence Newman are aging veterans who have had success in their careers with Clements playing as good as usual last season. Jason Allen isn't very good, but as the 4th corner, he's a good option. Pac-Man Jones is still on this roster in case you forgot. The middle of the field seems to be much weaker. Reggie Nelson is fine, but Taylor Mays is the real problem. As the strong safety, it doesn't help if he can't really cover receivers that well. He has a tendency to be burned in the passing game.

Special Teams
Mike Nugent somehow found a way to be consistent all of a sudden after struggling with just that during his career. I'm not sure whether or not he can continue to be as sure-footed as last year. Ken Huber wasn't very good last year. Brandon Tate has done well in the kick return game in the past.

7-9, 3rd in AFC North