First of all, the health of Tony Parker will probably keep him from playing his normal minutes at least tonight, and probably for the rest of the series. San Antonio does have some depth at the point guard position in Cory Joseph and Gary Neal, but Parker is one of the best players in basketball, and extremely hard to replace. Neither or those backups have the ability to run the pick and roll like Parker.
LeBron needs to step up, and I think he will. The Spurs are playing him perfectly, and he knows this. Either he will take what the defense gives him, and he has come into tonight's game ready to shoot jumpers, or he is going to use his strength to get to the hoop regardless. He will start off hot and we may see a repeat of stone faced LeBron from Game 6 in Boston last year. He knows what he has to do. Now it's time to go do it.
The Heat will not allow the Spurs to get open jump shots on the perimeter after the catastrophe that was Game 3. There may be a few lapses, but expect a new defensive strategy by Miami.
Also, expect to see a lot of Mike Miller tonight.